(Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)
Developed primarily as a starter during his time in the Yankees’ minor league system, rather quietly had a very good rookie campaign out of the bullpen for the big league club in 2011.
He finished the season with a 4.47 ERA/4.09 FIP/4.02 xFIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 and a 41% GB% over 56.1 innings, most of which came in relief. However, his numbers look even shinier if you remove the two innings-limited spot starts he made at the end of the season — 4.01 ERA/3.88 FIP/3.91 xFIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9.
While the preseason projection systems were projecting him as a starter, he still outperformed his average preseason projection of a 4.84 ERA/4.91 FIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 rather handily, with the exception of the free passes.
Though Noesi ended up being a valuable part of the bullpen, if the team does end up holding a competition for the back end of the rotation next spring, Noesi will certainly be in the mix, especially seeing as how he’s currently fifth on the Yankees’ starting pitching depth chart after , , and .
Noesi’s very likely not a 4.00-ERA pitcher as a starter, but he performed well enough that it doesn’t seem out of the question that he could provide perhaps a slightly below-league-average-ish 4.25-4.50 ERA if given a healthy number of starts.
Let’s take a look at what Hector’s done since being promoted to Charleston at the beginning of 2009:
Low walk rates have been the name of Noesi’s game for most of his career, although his BB/9 finally spiked above 3.0 this season, as he faced superior competition at AAA and at the MLB level. He’s not an exceptional strikeout pitcher, though he has more of a track record of punching guys out than Ivan Nova, and Noesi will need to strike a bare minimum of 6 per nine out as a starter if he’s going to live at around a 40% GB%. Innings shouldn’t be a major obstacle for Noesi; he logged a career-high 160.1 across three levels in 2010, and 81 last season, so I’d think he’d be able to throw at least 150 should he make himself part of the rotation conversation.
Here’s a breakdown of Noesi’s stuff, per the data at TexasLeaguers.com:
According to the TexasLeaguers data Noesi has five pitches — a four-seam and two-seam fastball, slider, curve and changeup, though like Ivan Nova, it’s possible PITCHf/x is mis-classifying some four-seamers as two-seamers, as I haven’t been able to find a scouting report that says he throws a sinker (though it’s also possible that he added one). His four-seamer is almost exactly league-average as far as horizontal and vertical break goes, although he throws it one mile per hour faster than average, which may have helped contribute to his above-average whiff rate. The slider and curve both wound up generating above-average whiff rates, although prior to this season neither were thought to be even average big league pitches. His stuff almost certainly played up better in the ‘pen, although given that Noesi was frequently used as a long man, he may not have been completely emptying the tank each time out. Until we see more, the jury appears to still be out on whether his breaking pitches will end up being assets.
And here’s Noesi’s batted ball platoon data, courtesy of JoeLefkowitz.com:
It’d be great to see Noesi establish the curve and slider as legit secondary pitches, as his slider was a big swing-and-miss pitch against righties, while the curve helped combat lefties and also generated impressive ground-ball rates.
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I’m surprised that he didn’t use the curveball more against right handed batters. He seems to be essentially just fastball/slider against them while using his whole arsenal against lefties. The low GB rate on the four seamer is interesting, though it’s made up for with the curve, slider, and change up. I’d like to see his FF/FT locations and see if they’re a bit too far up for his own good, leading to a lack of grounders.
The pitch selection doesn’t surprise me, someone with his command can be fine with 2 pitches against same handed batters. Facing lefties, his secondary stuff isn’t great, so he just tries to mix it up.
I hold out hope that swing and miss offering will come, that could be as simple as a new grip on an existing pitch one year in ST. But until then, I’d love to see him focus on getting ground balls. He can be fine as a back of the rotation guy if he keeps the ball on the ground.
I would much rather Noesi stay in the pen, and maybe develop into an Alfredo Aceves jack of all trades type than be a regular starter in the rotation. I’m sure many will point to Nova and say never type cast a young pitcher before being given the chance, but I just don’t see him ever being anything to write home about in the rotation. I certainly don’t see him having the kind of rise Nova has had. If the Yankees go into the season with Noesi in the 5th spot of the rotation, I for one will be dissapointed. He’s someone I have no problem using for spot starts over the course of the season (again in the Aceves mold), but to rely on him every 5th day isn’t something I’m keen on.