(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).

Justin Verlander continued his late season run of dominance by recording his 12th consecutive victory in Sunday’s 3-0 triumph over the Athletics. During that span, the Tigers’ right hander has compiled half of his league leading 24 victories, the highest total by an American League pitcher since won 27 games in 1990.

Even though more advanced metrics place Verlander in close proximity to other Cy Young contenders like , and , his inflated win total has all but assured he’ll go home with that award. What’s more, if the recent rumblings by voting members of the BBWAA are any indication, Verlander may need room on his mantle for more than just one piece of hardware.

Most Wins in a Single Season, Since 1990

Player Tm Year W L IP SO ERA ERA+
OAK 1990 27 6 238 127 2.95 126
DET 2011 24 5 244 244 2.29 176
ARI 2002 24 5 260 334 2.32 197
ATL 1996 24 8 253.2 276 2.94 149
ARI 2002 23 7 259.1 316 3.23 142
OAK 2002 23 5 229.1 182 2.75 158
BOS 1999 23 4 213.1 313 2.07 243

Source: Baseball-reference.com

One often repeated fact used to advocate Verlander’s MVP candidacy is the Tigers’ 25-8 record in games that he pitches. According to the theory, the team’s comparative winning percentage (.758 with him versus .533 without) illustrates just how valuable Verlander has been to the Tigers’ division title, which makes him a leading choice for MVP. Of course, there are two obvious flaws in that logic. Obviously, without a contribution from the eight men behind him, Verlander would not have been able to compile such a high win total. Although Verlander has been the common denominator in the 33 games he has started, players like , , and also deserve a share of the credit for those victories. Secondly, even with a .533 winning percentage, the Tigers would lead the Central Division by three or four games. If the end justifies the means, then it could be argued that the Tigers haven’t needed Verlander as much as some have suggested.

Best and Worst Team Records in a Pitcher’s Games Started

Player W L W% Player W L W%
Vance Worley 16 4 0.800 Ubaldo Jimenez 8 13 0.381
Roy Halladay 23 7 0.767 Mat Latos 11 18 0.379
Justin Verlander 25 8 0.758 Tyler Chatwood 9 15 0.375
Ian Kennedy 23 8 0.742 Brett Myers 11 20 0.355
Zack Greinke 19 7 0.731 Livan Hernandez 10 19 0.345
Ivan Nova 18 7 0.720 Jeff Francis 10 21 0.323
Josh Beckett 20 8 0.714 Danny Duffy 6 14 0.300
Cliff Lee 21 9 0.700 Paul Maholm 7 19 0.269
Jair Jurrjens 16 7 0.696 Dustin Moseley 5 15 0.250
Jered Weaver 22 10 0.688 J.A. Happ 6 20 0.231

Note: Minimum 20 starts.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The exaggerated claims about Verlander’s season do little to diminish the excellence he has exhibited. However, relying on purely team-based statistics can be awfully misleading. For example, that having to use as a starter has contributed to Boston’s September swoon, but that argument ignores the fact that the Red Sox are 9-3 in games he has started. Similarly, the Tigers enjoy winning percentages of .655 and .613 in games started by and despite their having an ERA+ of 84 and 92, respectively. Apparently, the Tigers have still been able to win ball games even when they don’t receive stellar starting pitching.

Justin Verlander has had an incredible season and, all things considered, is probably the most deserving candidate for the Cy Young award. Before anointing him an MVP, however, those with a vote would be wise to take a step back from his impressive win total and see what lies beneath it. Maybe Verlander is the Cy Young and MVP, but if so, a vote shouldn’t be based on how well the team has played when he has been on the mound. The 2011 Tigers are not the 1972 Phillies, so giving all the credit to Verlander seems as much a slap in the face to the rest of the team as a plaudit for the ace right hander.

 

One Response to Should Team Record in a Pitcher’s Starts Be MVP Criterion?

  1. Joe Turner says:

    I agree that a Team’s Record under a pitcher (Alone) should not merit that pitcher being an MVP candidate. That said, I do think you are overlooking some other factors that are not easily demonstrated statistically.

    For instance, the Tigers manager has the ability to “use up” the bullpen the night before a Verlander start to try to win a game and typically has a somewhat more rested bullpen the night after a Verlander start since he has gone at least 7 innings in almost every start. That deeper bullpen translates to an arguably better chance to win games in the game before and after he pitches.

    Verlander has also kept the Tigers from any extended losing streaks, as he has a tremendous record following a Tigers loss. How do you quantify the confidence this gives a team? The Red Sox are going through quite a slide of late, and it’s partly based on a starting pitching staff having problems. This seems to translate to the team losing confidence and “pressing” and trying to do to much at times. A bit oversimplified I realize, but the swagger, confidence and patience the Tigers play with is unmistakeable when Verlander pitches. This confidence/success cycle has seemed to carry through the rest of their games–and starting rotation.

    Can anyone say this is strictly a “Verlander effect”? No, of course not. But I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Verlander’s worst month–his March/April start coincided with the Tigers poor start. And there certainly seems to be a strong correlation to his success and the Tigers rise to a top playoff contender this year.

    [Reply]

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