Well, why not? Here’s my “process”- I like upside, I like guys who are young for their level and I also have to consider the results. Tools don’t always translate into results obviously and it goes the other way as well- just because a guy is putting up huge numbers in A ball doesn’t make him a big prospect. It’s always a balance for me between scouting information and actual results. Also, I reserve the right to be wrong/have my own opinion/etc. I’m not always right and don’t have all the definitive information like some clairvoyant savants do. That being said, I like having discussions about this stuff so if you disagree, let me know about it. Here it is:
1 Jesus Montero
2 Gary Sanchez
3 Manuel Banuelos
4 Dellin Betances
5 Austin Romine
6 Slade Heathcott
7 JR Murphy
8 Adam Warren
9 Corban Joseph
10 Mason Williams
11 Brett Marshall
12 Bryan Mitchell
13 Graham Stoneburner
14 Cito Culver
15 David Adams
16 Andrew Brackman
17 Jose Ramirez
18 Rob Segedin
19 Angelo Gumbs
20 David Phelps
21 Dante Bichette Jr.
For comparison, here’s my list from February. As you can see, not a lot of drastic changes of course besides Brackman. More on that in a minute. I generally am of the belief that half a season is too short a time to make a drastic reversal of opinion on a guy. That’s why my top 4 isn’t changing at this point. It hasn’t been a great half season in comparison to how everyone performed in 2010 but nothing is bad enough to warrant a drastic reversal of opinion. Except maybe Andrew Brackman. Basically there are two versions of Brackman- 2010 Andrew and 2009/2011 Andrew. His velocity is all over the place, the mechanics are totally out of whack- there’s no consistency at all from him. Even last year, we heard in his scouting reports he was inconsistent enough to give scouts pause when considering his entire game. This year he’s been awful in the rotation and awful in the bullpen. Obviously with his size, it’s much harder to find that consistency. I think ultimately he’s a reliever.
Elsewhere, I think things are pretty self explanatory. Romine has had a nice year and while I’m not the biggest fan of his, I think his floor still has him in the majors, probably as a backup. Adam Warren and Corban Joseph are two others who have a high floor without the high ceiling of others in the top 10. Warren I still see as being a 4/5 starting pitcher. Joseph could probably be a starting 2B for another team or at least a good hitting utility player. Stoneburner and David Adams with their injuries have been tough to make calls on. Last year, David Adams looked like he’d be in the Bronx in some capacity this season but that ankle injury has been a nightmare for him. Stoneburner barely got his season started in AA before getting injured. Brett Marshall and Bryan Mitchell I feel both have high ceilings but will take some time to get there. Jose Ramirez has had a tough season, earning a demotion to Charleston in May. His numbers aren’t quite as bad as his 8+ ERA in Tampa would indicate- he had a 4.23 FIP and still had a K/9 above 9.
The back end of the list is always hard to make. It’s really meaningless who is 21 compared to who is 20 or 19 anyway. I think Bichette will hit in some capacity so I gave him the nod at 21. I’m hesitant to go with the unproven DSL guys but I was really considering Ravel Santana for that last spot as well. He’s got a real nice power/speed combo and his first trip stateside last year was a big success. I chose to not put anyone on the list the Yankees have yet to sign from 2011. Otherwise I think Jordan Cote could have crept onto this list. I also left of Hector Noesi, only because he’s in the majors already. I still consider him a prospect and a decent one, I just wanted some extra spots to have fun with.
So that’s the list, hope you don’t hate it too much. Actually that’s a lie, I really don’t care at all what you think of it. It’s my list and just my opinion. Feel free to tell me what you disagree with though, I always enjoy a good discussion.
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I disagree w/everything solely because you wrote it.
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Sean P Reply:
July 14th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Boba Fett and Lando Calrissian were late cuts.
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Matt Imbrogno Reply:
July 14th, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Bobba Fett is overrated.
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Pretty solid list. I’d drop Sanchez below Banuelos and Betances, and would probably flip Slade and Murphy (just based on the good reports we’ve gotten lately on JR’s defense), but otherwise this is about what my list would look like. Where would Noesi slot if you had him on the list? I’d probably have him somewhere 6-8.
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Sean P Reply:
July 14th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
10ish on Noesi, because he doesn’t really have a good ceiling. Similar to Warren, in there somewhere.
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Sean P Reply:
July 14th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
Sanchez to me, who has a chance to hit well and actually catch (at this point) has a higher ceiling than Betances or Banuelos. It’s preference though.
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Brett Marshall is the most intriguing prospect amongst the ones that weren’t top 5. I coulod see him having a big jump after the season is over. His pitches and grounball rate could make him a legit mlb pitching prospect.
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In brief, I would have put Tyler Austin ahead of Dante Bichette Jr. I see his ceiling be much higher.
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I like how aggressive you were with Mason Williams. I haven’t seen anyone else rank him that high and he’s been very impressive to date. I can’t see putting Gary Sanchez so high though. He’s just too far off to comfortably project that high, and it’s not like Betances and Banuelos don’t have high ceilings also. It’s not that the minor setbacks this year are that much of a concern though, I just think #2 was too aggressive to begin with. Even though I disagree, I like that you stuck with your gut here. I want to argue that Brackman should be higher based on ceiling and the fact that really tall pitchers take longer to develop but his major league contract and single remaining option prevents me from doing it.
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Bryan Reply:
July 14th, 2011 at 6:00 pm
A good prospect list. One gripe though: putting Bryan Mitchell above Evan De Luca, who is a lefty, is at the same level, and has performed better than Mitchell. Plus they’re stuff is said to be comparable.
Btw, book Isias Tejeda, CGL’s catcher in there for next year. For sure another stud catcher for the system.
Also could I suggest writing a column discussing the Yankees’ draft strategy of filling positional holes in the system with raw, high ceiling high schoolers, instead of signing the so called “name prospects” of BA, Keith Law, etc. My 2 cents, I like it, though I’d still prefer some of the bigger names for trade bait purposes. Only the diehard Yankee fans like us would know who the hell Evan De Luca and Bryan Mitchell are.
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Pretty high on Corban Joseph
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Sean P Reply:
July 14th, 2011 at 10:58 pm
Like I said in the post, he’s a low floor guy. Those guys count too.
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I don’t like Phelps being so far down the list… I got him in the top 10, he has enough pitches, gets the heat as high as 94=95, and sits at like 92 or so, and has savy, and strikes guys out, to go with his being able to pitch and not walk alot of guys.. Phelps is way better then 20th prospect..
1. montero
2. manny banuelos
3. Dellin Betances
4. austin Romine
5. jr Murphy
6. Gary Sanchez
7. Mason WIlliams
8. Adam Warren
9. David Phelps
10. Bryan Mitchell
11. David Adams
12. Graham Stoneburner
13. Brett Marshall
14. Slade Heathcott(not nearly as sold as some)
15. Cito Culver
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Mid season lists are controversial bc undoubtedly one is always banking on the healthy return of a couple guys who havent played much if at all the first half. Furthermore, injuries to one prospect could derail a good year … ahem (HEATHCOTT).
That said. Here’s a quick and dirty list:
1-3. Enough has been written about Montero and Banny and Betances.
4-10. Mostly hitters (Romine, Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, JR Murphy, and yes…Mason Williams at 10). I’ll slide Adam Warren somewhere in the middle of these guy. I like Warren’s potential to carve a career as a ML starter. Mason Williams’s upside bumps CoJo to the 11-15 range.
11-15. Younger guys: Culver, Bryan Mitchell, CoJo. Older guys: David Phelps. ZOLIO ALMONTE. Yeah, Z.Almonte cracks my list at 15. You can’t ignore what he’s accomplished at Tampa.
16-20. Segedin. Kinda feel bad i have him slotted this low. Oh well. I want to see him hit Hi-A pitching. Brett Marshall could bump B. Mitchell if Marshall puts together a 2nd half reminiscent of what he did last season. ANDREW BRACKMAN is somewhere in this range. The dude has simply regressed and does not appear ready to face ML hitters even in a limited Bullpen role. Brackman is 25. Honestly, i feel darn generous to list him here.
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