Willingham and DeJesus
(Note: This post was originally drafted prior to the news of ‘s needing meniscus surgery. With A-Rod on the shelf for 4-6 weeks, the Yankees’ likelihood of acquiring an extra bat at the deadline ; fortunately the recommendations made below still apply.)
Last year at the All-Star break I did a three-part series taking a look at the Yankees’ perceived areas of weakness and how the team might go about fixing each of them. This year I’ve condensed the “Areas of Need” series into two posts (pitching to come tomorrow), as I’m not sure the team’s needs at the break are as pressing as they were last season, A-Rod’s injury notwithstanding. Sure, everyone could use a top-flight starter, another bat or bullpen help, but this year’s squad has performed a good deal better than I think many of us had expected prior to the season, and if there are upgrades to be had, they will most likely only be at the fringes. However, that won’t stop the Yankees from being linked to anyone and everyone.
Need #1: A bat
Throughout the first two months of the season the struggles of and led many in Yankeeland to call for a new outfielder and/or DH, though given Swisher’s big-time turnaround and Posada’s better play of late, those pleas seem to have died down. While the Yankees boast the second-best offense in the league, this year’s squad has certainly had a tendency to go into team-wide slumps, though every member of the everyday lineup (save ) is boasting a wOBA above .320, so it’s not as if there are many weak spots. The obvious move would be to depose Jeter to the bench in favor of Eduardo Nunez, but we all know that’s not happening.
If the Yankees did import a bat, they’d presumably look for a righty bat to platoon with Posada, who’s been execrable from the right side (.184 wOBA). While one could argue that the Yankees already have a solid righthanded bench bat in , he isn’t exactly crushing lefties (.336 wOBA), and it’d be nice to see some sort of upgrade from the righthand side, especially considering the team’s best righthanded bat in has continued his bizarre struggles against lefties.
My search begins by scouring the teams with .500-or-below records, given that these squads, for the most part, are already looking at next year.
I can’t recall the last time the Yankees and Orioles consummated a trade, but and his .366 wOBA would look pretty nice coming off the bench, even if he does have a reverse platoon split. Though both are playing reasonably well I can’t imagine — nor do I want to see — the Yankees reunite with either (a shocking .349 wOBA) or , neither of whom can hit from the right side.
I would take free-agent-to-be and his .502 SLG off the Nationals’ hands, even if he is a bit OBP-challenged (.315) and lefthanded. A wRC+ of 122 is nothing to sneeze at. The Marlins’ best hitters are all under team control for an eternity, so it’s not even worth speculating on their position players. Similarly, the Reds’ most prolific hitters aren’t going anywhere for a while. Pending free agent Johnny Gomes could make some sense, as his 110 wRC+ is better than four of the Yankees’ everyday players, although his 34% K% doesn’t exactly scream reliable bench option.
One name I surprisingly haven’t heard mentioned in conjunction with trade deadline acquisitions is Carlos Pena, who overcame a slow start to post a respectable .225/.339/.461 line, including a 14.4% walk rate. Given that the Cubs aren’t going anywhere along with Pena being in a walk year, he seems like an ideal bat for a contender. Of course, he bats from the lefthand side, but with Pena aiming for the short porch in right I’d be happy to overlook handedness in this instance.
Astros’ part-time righty is having an eye-opening season (.393 wOBA in 117 PAs), but I’d imagine the reason that he doesn’t get to play every day is because he can’t hit lefties (.186 wOBA). However, he smokes righties (.441 wOBA). Given the Astros’ current state of affairs, Downs seems like an ideal candidate for a trade, although there’s no precedent for him hitting this well at the Major League level, so if he did become available he’s probably a case of buyer beware. The Padres’ has put up a nice season, though he’s under team control for two more seasons.
My brother and I were joking this weekend about how it seems like Ty Wigginton goes yard every time he plays in Yankee Stadium, and I’d have no problem with Wigginton and his righthanded power bat (107 wRC+) getting some part-time burn. I’m not sure I’d even waste my time with the Dodgers, who only have four players slugging higher than .400, and one is . isn’t going anywhere, and can’t hit lefties, though I’d still gladly have either if the Dodgers did decide to deal ‘em.
Two other players I would be interested in adding — even though they’re both in the midst of rather disappointing seasons — are (.327 wOBA) and (.292 wOBA), both of whom may well be on the trading block given that the A’s aren’t competing this year as well as the fact that they’re both upcoming free agents. Willingham is in the midst of what would be his worst full season, with his walk rate way down and K rate way up, but perhaps a change of scenery from an extreme pitcher’s park to one of the more hitter-friendly environments in the land would do this career .263/.362/.470 hitter some good. I’ve been a fan of Willingham’s for a while now, and would love to see him in Yankee pinstripes.
DeJesus’s offensive output has been even meeker than Willingham’s, but he’s currently boasting a career-high walk rate (though that goes along with a career-high K rate), and has also hit into some pretty bad luck, with the 5th-worst BABIP in the AL at .246. Given that three of his Oakland teammates join him in the top 15 lowest BABIPs, DeJesus seems like another candidate who could benefit from a change of scenery. Another potential knock is that he doesn’t meet my criteria of hitting from the righthand side. Still, you could do worse than having DeJesus on your bench.
For what it’s worth, ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS) has Willingham hitting .244/.345/.430; .343 wOBA, with 11 home runs; and has DeJesus at .257/.335/.381; .317 wOBA. All of these numbers are improvements on what they have accomplished to date.
Of course, I have no idea what Beane would be looking for in exchange for a rental, and I’d certainly be wary of dealing with the one GM who always seems to extract top value in his dealings. Regardless, the thought of adding Willingham for the stretch run is pretty enticing and may be worth the gamble.
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Is “need #1″ by order of importance or just the order you are doing it in? My readers voted bench help (a bat) as the least needed. Starting pitching and bullpen help were about tied.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
July 11th, 2011 at 9:22 am
Ah, good question. It’s not in order of importance; I just happened to run this post first. I think everyone would agree a starting pitcher is the top priority.
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I forget, is Chavez out for the year?
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Larry Koestler Reply:
July 11th, 2011 at 9:41 am
It’s definitely not looking good for a Chavez return any time soon.
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It would be great if the Yanks could pry Reynolds from Balt. He’s hitting much better on the road and would be a good fill in with A Rod out and later provide some right handed power off the bench. However, there’s that pesky thing about trading within the division.
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Sorry, meant to add: It would be almost hysterical if the Yanks got Kemp and had 3 centerfielders!!
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Carlos Pena…really? That certainly got my attention. He’s not posted the numbers most envisioned, but the power swing looks like its coming back. He’d probably be the cheapest acquisition in terms of prospects cost. Is he a type A or B?
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Larry Koestler Reply:
July 11th, 2011 at 11:42 am
Type B
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Starting pitcher:
Gavin Floyd, 28, Chicago White Sox
110 2/3 IP in 17 GS (111 2/3 IP total as he pitched an inning of relief for a loss between starts 5/28), so only 8 1/3 IP shy of averaging 7 IP/GS
4.59 ERA but 1.263 WHIP (111 H 30 BB)
80 SO
He’s pitched at least 5 innings in 15 starts out of 17, 6 innings in 14 starts out of 17. He was 2/3 IP shy of pitching 5 IP one start.
6-8 as a starter (6-9 total)
I think the Yankees would have control over him after this season and if they did, they could have a rotation of Sabathia/Burnett/Floyd/Hughes/Nova to begin 2012.
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Duh, Innings Reply:
July 11th, 2011 at 11:12 am
Floyd’s 2011 game log:
=
He’s had two hard-luck losses, a gift win, and two win-worthy no decisions.
Note his worst start of the season was his last one this past Friday.
Interesting and cool to see he came out of a game in the middle of an inning only three times but only once in a win. He finishes innings for the most part.
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[...] this article: Addressing the Yankees' Areas of Need: A bat | New York Yankees … AKPC_IDS += "25728,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
we don’t need a bat , nunez will be a good fill in..we need a lefty pen guy..we won’t beat boston or texas without one…
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[...] The Yankees Analysts says the Yankees need to add a bat before the trade deadline. [...]
Stop with the metrics. I understand it is the age of information, but it only goes so far..Metrics,in many ways, are a superficial insight into baseball.
Good to write to. Good to talk to. But… more importantly – Does a guy want to leave his club? How will he react in a new clubhouse? A new city location? What about his clubhouse relationships.? New to be? Old to leave! How healthy is the guy? How does he handle pressure? Will he miss home?etc.etc.etc.
Having been a ball player in my youth I only submit that these issues play a bigger role in determining future performance than all of the disecting and dicing of previous performance.
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Yanks need a bat….one that can play leftfield & be a threat at the plate too. Gardner is a ONE TOOL only player. Not a threat at the plate, has difficulty bunting, kills rallys, questionably average throwing arm, can’t hit for power, often loses 1/2 to full stride when fielding a base hit & throwing back in to prevent the runner from taking an extra base or scoring.
Trade solutions: Beltran/MacCutcheon/Pence/Zobrist to name four. Also need an arm up front. Lefthander would be nice or ace rightie. Old adage is 100% true: great pitching beats great hitting; even more true in a short series. Trade Montero while he has value. Don’t trade the young lefties down on the farm or Nunez. Without a bat and/or SP, World Series is just a wish, like the players mentioned above.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
Gardner lead all of baseball in outfield assists last year. He’s also hitting .272 this year, with a .352 OBP and 22 stolen bases. So, no he isn’t a 1 tool player.
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Lefty Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 4:20 pm
T.O. Chris,
Thanks for the reply. A player is graded on his level of ability to perform the following. Please note the 5 tools:
1. Hit.(this means an above average average)
2. Hit for power. (this means extra base hits, rbi’s and HR’s)
3. Fielding ability.(does he field with above average ability?)
4. Throw. (how strong & accurate is his throwing arm)
5. Run.(his speed. Ex: home to 1st base 3.5 sec. is exc. speed)
Nothing in the “tools” criteria asks for outfield assists, obp, most pine tar on the bat rag or largest “chaw” of whatever. Gardner’s 22 stolen bases are representative of tool #5 in the list above.The five tools are what they are, and are important factors when scouting/evaluating players
Gardner can run. That’s his one tool. Great for a pinch runner. Or, getting back with the hotdog still hot! As a pitcher, I would pray to see 27 Gardners come to bat against me. Let’s see, 40-0.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
Outfield assists is out recorded by throwing runners out. He threw more runners out at home plate than any other player in baseball last year. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but he has a very accurate one.
Gardner also leads all left fielders in runs prevented this season. He is the best fielding left fielder in all of baseball, and would be one of the top defensive center fielders in baseball if we didn’t have Granderson.
He can throw with accuracy, he can steal bases, and he can consistently hit for a .270+ average. With his speed this makes him a very good player, and one we should hold onto. That is indeed more than 1 tool. He isn’t great on defense because of his speed alone, he is great on defense because he takes great routes to balls.
In fact Gardner had a 6.2 WAR last season, and already has a 3.2 WAR this season. Acting as if he is simply a pinch runner is silly at this point.
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Lefty Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Do not know how many opps Gardner had to throw runners out at home vs. all other outfielders in MLB last year. Stat must be someplace though. But,I’ve seen several occasions where he’s allowed runners to take the extra base due to his fielding technique and soft arm. Again, what has allowed him to do what you say is the running speed as he gets to the ball quicker than many, not his throwing ability. And many outfielders out there take the smart route to the ball.
It might be better to have the 10th best fielding left fielder who hits over .300, drives in 90-100 runs, steals some bases, and is a threat at the plate whenever he’s up.
Gardner is not the center fielder, and shouldn’t be, so that’s a moot point.
I never said to trade him..He has value as a pinch runner, possible outfield replacement or pinch hitting duties if he could learn to bunt for a base hit. Speed is speed. Fielding is fielding. Speed makes fielding appear better than it might be. He’s a one tool player.
Question: Would a manager rather have Ben Zobrist or Carlos Beltran in left field batting 3-4 times/game and Gardner on the bench or Gardner in left batting 3-4 times/game. It’s that simple. The answer is: Gardner rides the “pines.”
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
You don’t throw runners out at home because of speed. You can get there as quick as you want but if you aren’t accurate to the plate, the run still scores. As I said he doesn’t have the strongest arm but it is very accurate. Gardner had a 8.2 arm above replacement rating last year, and has a 14.5 career arm above replacement rating. Statistics back up the fact that he does indeed have a positively rated arm.
Yes speed does play a part in his ability to field well, but to dismiss his fielding as simply speed is silly. Gardner has a career 32.5 UZR/150 as an outfielder, and a career 20/5 UZR/150 as a center fielder alone. He is one of the best all around defensive outfielders in baseball, and he is the very best defensive left fielder in the entire game.
Based on that alone he is a 2 tool player. Fielding is one of the 5 tools, and whether you want to admit it or not he is well above average in both speed and fielding. The stats also confirm he has a well above average arm, which makes him at the very least a 3 tool player.
As far as his bat goes Gardner is a protypical leadoff hitter. He isn’t asked to drive in 90-100 runs, or hit home runs, that isn’t what that kind of player does. Not every player on the team is suppose to hit a lot of home runs, but to say he can’t hit is ridiculous. his triple slash line this year is already above average .272/.352/.401 with an wOBA of .339. He has a better slugging percentage this year than he did last year even when eh posted a very respectable triple slash line of .277/.383/.379 with a wOBA of .358.
Gardner is a guy who will hit .270+, get on a base at a .360+ clip, and steal 40-60 bases a year. All while playing gold glove defense, he is much much more than a pinch hitter/defensive replacement.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 4:36 pm
In regards to each of the players mentioned. McCutchen is going nowhere, he is super cheap, and has yet to reach arbitration even. Not to mention the Pirates are in the mix somewhat this year, and have an above .500 record.
The Mets are asking for a top prospect for Beltran and he has only half a year on his contract left. He would be a complete overpay, and when you consider he has a 3.5 WAR this season, he is a negligible upgrade over the much cheaper, cost controlled Gardner.
Hunter Pence actually has a worse WAR this year than Gardner at 2.7, and has actually never had a WAR as good as Gardner did last year. He is a solid right fielder, but he would struggle defensively in LF for us, and the Astros would ask for a lot in return. Gardner is the better option.
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Lefty Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
It must be remembered that team consist & chemistry is a large part of what makes a player tick. MacCutchen has great upside & a change in scenery to the Yankees could cause him to bloom and mature.
Hunter Pence also has very good potential and can move to left. And, the same thing goes regarding his surrounding cast and the dynamics of being a Yankee playing in Yankee Stadium. It’s special, trust me.
Beltran would have to be obtained for less than a top prospect, and it’s possible. Mets still have money troubles. Also a renegotiated, multi-year contract with Beltran is a must or let him pass.
Here it is simply: Take Granderson away and the outfield production is poor at best. Gardner is the weakest sister.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Once again the Pirates aren’t going to trade McCutchen. He has yet to even reach his arbitration years, he is the best player on the Pirates, and they are above .500 and actually looking to add players at the deadline.
Hunter Pence is 28 years old, he doesn’t have much more potential to tap into. I live in Houston and have watched him play his whole career, he is a good ball player but he isn’t a superstar. He defense is OK in right field, but he wouldn’t be that great playing left field in Yankee stadium. Our expansive left field calls for someone with center field capabilities, and he is no where near the defensive player Gardner is.
The Mets have told everyone calling on Beltran that he will only be moved for a top prospect, and they will get one. Multiple teams are in on Beltran, and he is the best outfield bat available in the trade market. I wouldn’t want Beltran on an extended deal. He is fragile, and no where near the player he once was. He is still good, but he isn’t worth multiple years, or the money it would take.
You vastly overrate big boppers, and you vastly underrate Gardner. No one coming off a 6+ WAR season, and on his way to another one is a “weak” anything.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 5:58 pm
Swisher in 2010- .288/.359/.511, 29 HRs, 89 RBI, 4.2 WAR
Gardner in 2010- .277/.383/.379, 5 HRs, 47 SB’s, 6.2 WAR
Swisher had the better average, more home runs, and more RBI and still fell 2 whole wins short of Gardner last season. More home runs and RBI do not equal a better player, it simply doesn’t work that way.
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