Before you read this it behooves me to note that after I completed this piece it came to my attention that our pal Jay Jaffe also wrote about this very topic yesterday, though I wound up using ZiPS Rest-of-Season numbers instead of 2011 stats, so the below presents a slightly different take on the matter. While Jay and I overall feel similarly on the topic, I also drew a slightly different conclusion. Additionally, our friend SG at RLYW also attacked this earlier today utilizing updated CAIRO projections, and basically drew the same conclusion that I did.
I’ve probably been one of ‘s more vocal critics during his slide into mediocrity during the last year-plus, and between the Captain reportedly being insulted at a way-above market contract offer last winter before ultimately signing what was still a way-above market contract for too many years, continuing to lead the world in ground balls, selfishly trying to avoid the disabled list to the detriment of the 25-man roster as he recuperates from a minor calf injury and owning a .260/.324/.324 (0.5 fWAR) line on the season, he hasn’t exactly done anything to change my mind.
With Derek on the mend and perhaps returning to action next week, stated that Jeter would be the leadoff hitter upon his return to the lineup. While many expect that particular declaration to last only so long as it takes Jeter to reach his 3,000th hit, the Yankees haven’t exactly shown a willingness to mess with their most iconic player since perhaps , and I would be pretty surprised if Girardi did the sensible thing and platooned Jeter and in the leadoff spot, per Mike Axisa’s suggestion.
However, for as much as Brett Gardner’s improved play of late (.308/.393/.449, .370 wOBA over the last 30 days) has Yankee fans clamoring for Brett’s permanent installation into the leadoff slot and concurrent dropping of Derek far below to the nether reaches of the linesup, as it turns out a Gardner-Jeter swap wouldn’t result in anywhere near the kind of run improvement one might expect.
Utilizing ZiPS’ Rest-of-Season projections for the Yankee starting lineup (prior to yesterday’s double-header), we get the following results:
With Derek batting leadoff and Gardner hitting ninth: 5.505 runs per game
With Gardner batting leadoff and Jeter hitting ninth: 5.516 runs per game
That minuscule .011 run-per-game difference translates to roughly one run (0.979) over the season’s remaining 89 games.
If you’re like me, and think ZiPS’ RoS projection of .339 OBP/.380 SLG for Jeter is aggressive, and want to swap in his current .324/.324 rates, you get:
With Derek batting leadoff and Gardner hitting ninth: 5.408 runs per game
With Gardner batting leadoff and Jeter hitting ninth: 5.448 runs per game
This .040 run-per-game difference works out to roughly 3.6 runs over the rest of the season.
If we use a baseline of 10 runs = one win, Derek batting in the top spot for the remainder of the season wouldn’t even cost the Yankees half a victory. As much as it seems like a no-brainer to make the Gardner-Jeter swap — and this analysis doesn’t change my desire for that — it would appear that any griping about Derek hitting leadoff is probably pointless.
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What happens if you plug in their split OBP/SLG? I.e. take what Jeter hits (OBP/SLG v. LHP) and what Gardner hits vs. RHP, and plug it into the lineups.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 5:20 pm
If we assume the team is facing a lefty and use everyone’s lefty splits, with Jeter hitting leadoff we get a lineup averaging a whopping 5.971 runs per game.
Clearly the Yankees have done their best work against lefties this season, with a .356 team wOBA against southpaws, third in the Majors behind the Reds and Blue Jays.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 5:23 pm
Of course, that comes with the caveat that the team has obviously faced far fewer lefties than righties, and though I wouldn’t expect a dramatic falloff in performance, they’re probably not a six-run-per-game team against southpaws.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 9:15 pm
Granderson probably goes along way to who we are against lefties. If he maintains his production against left handed pitching, especially the power, we are probably close to a 6 run team against lefties. When he struggles, the rest of the lineup follows.
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Does the runs per game calculations take into account Gardner’s higher than average frequency getting thrown out? With 24 attempts he should be at a 75% success rate (minimum) which means he’s been thrown out 10 times rather than 6. I doubt this has a significant impact on these calculations, but I am curious.
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You’re basically telling us there’s no difference between Gardner-Jeter in the 9-1 and Jeter-Gardner in the 9-1 based on runs scored per game.
9/25/11. Jeter starts at leadoff, the Yankees and Red Sox are tied in the bottom of the twelfth, two outs, no one one base, Jeter up.
He is less likely to get on base than any other everyday player save Posada who trails him in OBP by only three points, so I’ll take Gardner, Swisher, or Granderson in place of Jeter, thanks. I’d even take Posada over Jeter cuz Posada is more likely to rap a double or walkoff homerun than Jeter (if Posada gets on base, just pinch-run for him.)
Again, batting Jeter leadoff is strictly to keep up appearances and stroke his ego. ‘Say he was dropped to ninth for the rest of this season. What’s he gonna do, retire after this season and walk away from $36M guaranteed and a potential $41M total? Sit out and risk the rest of his contract being voided for non-performance? Demand a trade? Fine, he can list the NL teams he’d accept going to since he’s not being traded to an AL team the Yankees could draw in the postseason, the Yankees’ll trade him to one of them, and maybe they’ll face him in the 2012, 2013, or 2014 World Series.
This fear of Jeter by the Yankees organization is ridiculous. The dude sucks and needs to be told that in no uncertain terms. May 2010 through almost half of 2011 is more than enough of a chance for him to get it together. They gotta give him three years at $15M, $16M, and $17M plus an $8M player’s option or $3M buyout AND kiss his ass? He’s lucky he didn’t finish last season with 3,000 career hits or he’d have been let go. I would’ve let him go had he collected 3,000 career hits or more through last season.
I don’t hate or even dislike Jeter even though it seems like I do, I am just very disappointed and annoyed at him. He’s coming off like a ME player than a TEAM player this year after coming off like a whiny bitch in the offseason. He is hurting the team in his own way, and anyone who tells me him batting leadoff all year could cost the Yankees a win, are you kidding me with wanting to give up a win? If the AL loses the All-Star Game, the Yankees finish the season tied with the Red Sox, and the Red Sox win the season series (likely as they need only two wins in the next nine games to win it), guess what? The Yankees would win the wildcard, start EVERY postseason series on the road, and lose the DH in as many as four games in the World Series. That would hurt their chances of winning it all, the bottom line.
All because Jeter cost the Yankees a win cuz his ego had to have him bat leadoff and people he works for were scared to move him to ninth. Btw who’s to say it has to be a permanent move although why fix what ain’t broke if he suddenly posted a current Gardner-ian BA/OBP? WTF would it matter to him if he batted leadoff or ninth if he was hitting well for the team?
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SG Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 7:21 pm
This was my initial thought on one of the reasons to have Jeter batting ninth instead of first, but if you think about it, it doesn’t necessarily matter.
If Jeter’s hitting ninth and Gardner’s hitting first, if the #9 spot comes up with two outs late in the game and Jeter’s more likely to make an out than Gardner then you’re going to have a lesser likelihood of extending the inning if Jeter’s hitting ninth instead of Gardner. So should your scenario come to pass, you are worse off with Jeter up trying to extend the inning instead of Gardner, but with Gardner batting ninth you have a better chance of getting back up to leadoff, at which point Jeter can then ground out.
Jeter leading off against righties isn’t optimal, but it’s probably not going to make much difference.
I’d also quibble with saying it’s Jeter’s fault that he hasn’t been moved down in the lineup. As far as we know the team hasn’t asked him to do it, and any speculation that he’d be unwilling to do it is just that, speculation. I hated the contract, but you can’t blame Jeter for taking it. Blame management for giving him a far better deal than they needed to given his lack of other options.
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van mungo Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:07 pm
Cap’n Jete could go to Girardi and ASK to be placed at the bottom of the order for the good of the team.
Will that happen? Can any supercomputer count the molecules of Jeter’s ego?
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Joe G Reply:
June 24th, 2011 at 8:47 am
Nope, I’ve been wrestling with this for awhile, but I think it finally must be said….Jeter’s a dick.
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Yanks 28 Reply:
June 24th, 2011 at 9:06 am
He’s a dick because he won’t move down the lineup? OH Wait, you mean he’s on the DL right now and nobody has asked him to move yet? You’re right. What a dick!
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van mungo Reply:
June 25th, 2011 at 12:00 am
The reality of Jeter’s offensive decline has been unmistakable to all except the terminally delusional for a year and a half now.
He should have gone to Girardi and asked him to make this move (demoting him to the bottom of the order, leading off Gardner) last July–but he didn’t, and won’t (barring an unlikely uproar among fans or writers) because he is . . . a dick.
Let’s see what happens when he returns. If he goes to Girardi to make this request for the good of the team, he will finally have re-earned the title captain. If not, not.
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Batting Jeter leadoff guarantees at least one AB per game where he won’t hit into a double play.
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Marek Reply:
June 24th, 2011 at 7:42 am
FTW!
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Great analysis Larry!
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Matt Warden Reply:
June 24th, 2011 at 8:25 am
Yeah, great work Lar. I think what it really comes down to is singular at bats. In isolated occasions, sure, Jeter is less desirable than some of the other guys. Cumulatively though, as you note, it’s rather inconsequential. Either way…frustrating as hell to watch.
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[...] considering that (a) the Yankees clearly aren’t interested in upsetting the apple cart, (b) my own research showed that the net gain of moving him out of the leadoff slot was minimal to the point of probably [...]