Note: Please use this post as your game thread for tonight.
The Yankees (14-8, 1st in the AL East) meet the Blue Jays (12-13, 3rd in ALE) for the second time in two weeks as Toronto comes to the Stadium for a three-game set this weekend. As regular readers know, Toronto emerged as one of my least-favorite teams to face last year, and true to form, the Extra-Base Hits are currently boasting a top-five offense in the American League (and really, it’s probably more like top-three, as I don’t know what the heck Cleveland and Kansas City are doing in that top five) — although much of that is being propped up by a hitting-out-of-his-mind Jose Bautista — though the starting pitching hasn’t been quite as excellent as it was last year thus far.
The teams split their two-game set last week in Toronto, though the Yankees probably should’ve won both. Much to my delight, the Yankees finally broke through against arch-nemesis in the second game, which resulted in Cecil being demoted to AAA Las Vegas! Not to revel in someone else’s sorrow, but after Cecil’s complete dominance of the Bombers last season, this was certainly an unexpected occurrence.
In tonight’s game, Freddy Garcia (0.69 ERA/2.57 FIP/3.48 xFIP) looks to continue his rather improbable run of 12 straight scoreless innings as he makes his third start of the season against (3.00 ERA/3.06 FIP/3.02 xFIP). Romero made three starts against the Yankees last year, two of which were incredible — 8 innings of two-run ball on June 5 and 9 innings of two-run ball on August 3 — and one which was a disaster, eight earned runs in 2.2 innings on July 3, which was probably his worst start of the season. Given Romero’s emergence as one of the better pitchers in the American League, I think it’s safe to say the July start was an aberration, and I’d expect the lefty Romero to once again be a significant challenge for the Yankee hitters. However, given that they finally got to Cecil, perhaps Romero won’t be quite as much of an enigma this time around. As for Garcia, he’s already exceeded expectations — and he actually projects to continue pitching pretty well, per his 3.49 xFIP — but his little run of success so far has been pretty fluky, and he seems destined for a poor outing soon enough.
Saturday afternoon’s game has an unusual-for-Yankee-Stadium start time of 4:10pm, and features a rematch of (3.52 ERA/4.34 FIP/3.98 xFIP) vs. (3.30 ERA/4.73 FIP/4.29 xFIP). Neither pitcher was particularly good in their last face-off, although both rebounded with stronger outings in their next starts. Drabek’s still walking too many batters (5.10 BB/9) and has also experienced luck on both balls in play (.256 BABIP) and strand rate (79.4%), hence the outpitching of his FIP. Burnett just hasn’t been very good against the Jays for some time now, so I can’t say I feel great about this match-up, and it would seem to be another one that ends up being decided by the bullpens.
The Sunday afternoon finale has (5.82 ERA/3.73 FIP/4.92 xFIP), fresh off perhaps the best start of his career, facing (3.86 ERA/3.29 FIP/3.79 xFIP), who’s off to a nice start and has been Toronto’s second-best starter so far. Litsch hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2008, and I don’t really remember what he offers, but per Fangraphs he’s a pretty slow-throwing righty (89.5mph average fastball) whose best pitch is his cutter. Nothing about Litsch’s stat line really stands out for me except for the fact that he’s had a bit of bad luck on balls in play (.320 BABIP) and is also due to start giving up more home runs (0.39 HR/9). Despite his outing against the White Sox, I’m far from sold on Nova, and don’t feel comfortable predicting a strong start from him yet, especially against an offense capable of blasting home runs (even if no one outside of Bautista is really doing so yet) against a pitcher who has yet to give one up.
Here are the two teams’ offense and pitching numbers, with AL ranks in parentheses:
In updating this table I was also looking at both teams’ numbers from 10 days ago as the Yanks were headed up to Toronto, and couldn’t believe my eyes that the Yankee starters’ collective ERA was 5.40 heading into that set and now sits at 3.78. Small sample size and all that, but still — shaving nearly two runs off the group’s ERA over 10 days is still pretty damn impressive.
The Yankees’ team numbers have actually gotten better pretty much all across their ledger since 10 days ago, while the Jays’ have slightly worsened. Interestingly, the Jays’ starters are dead last in the AL in BABIP, while their bullpen is first, with a ridiculous .208. It looks like the Toronto bullpen has been getting fairly lucky, as they’ve walked their share of batters, but are barely giving up any hits (.187 BAA, tops in the AL) and as such, stranding a ton of runners (82.1% LOB%).
While the Jays appear to be perhaps a slightly more well-rounded team this year, if the Yankees can somehow contain Jose Bautista, the rest of the lineup doesn’t seem overwhelmingly threatening. That being said, this is the Blue Jays, and we know they’re capable of busting out for 8,000,000 doubles and home runs at any given time, especially at Yankee Stadium. Even so, the Yankees really should be able to take two of three from this team, particularly after the bats finally woke up last night after a three-day slumber against White Sox pitching.
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I say buy low on Liriano.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
April 30th, 2011 at 12:36 am
What would you be willing to trade? I think I can commit to Betances, but there is no way I give up Montero, Sanchez, or Montero, especially since he has stopped throwing the slider as much this year, and the pitch has been less effective.
I’m not sure what kind of package the Twins would be looking for since their outfield is so crowded and they are strong behind the plate but maybe Betances, Noesi, Nunez, and Brackman?
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Now that’s a great bunt.
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This Yankees team is ridiculous!
Teixiera aka post-2001 Jason Giambi II by 2013 the way he’s going (his contract runs through 2016) swings on the first pitch after the Yankees load the bases with no one out and a gift error by the 3B. What the $#%^ are you doing swinging on the first pitch and A-Rod is no better.
Robertson makes a boneheaded pickoff attempt at 2B. Um, you know there’s a guy on 3B right? And enough with the fake to 3B then to 1B shit, name me the last time that worked outside of maybe Jeff Nelson.
And can the outfield throw out someone at homeplate for once? That fifth run should’ve never scored. Awful throw.
Watching this game tonight really makes me wonder if this team has what it takes to win it all. They’ve pissed away at least four games where their starters gave them good or better performances. If they lose tonight, I have to say, Freddy Garcia while not as good as he was in his first two starts, pitched well enough to keep the team in the game (Blue Jays up only 3-2) and he made only one mistake with Bautista you can live with cuz he’s the Jays’ best hitter and a top 5 AL hitter / top 20 if not 10 MLB hitter.
The game isn’t over yet but the Yankees look like lackadaiscal we have all night to get it done shit again. If they lose tonight but win tomorrow, 15-9 for April is nice but it could’ve easily been 17-7 or 18-6 / .750 baseball. They’ve given up alot of games already. ‘Better cut it out next month or it will come back to haunt them in September. I am fully expecting them to have the dogfight of their lives to make the postseason so any slipup could cost them.
Very Jekyll & Hyde.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 9:55 pm
We knew this was a flawed team before the season began, But it’s been flawed in somewhat of a different way. A lot of analysts thought the starting pitching would be shaky, the bullpen would be lights out, and the team would hit well. The starting pitching has been very good, although no one knows if it will hold up, and the bullpen has been off and on. And the OBP of this team has fallen off the cliff.
I have no idea how it will play out. They’ll need luck, but so will any team to win the World Series.
In this game, the error by Robertson was atrocious. I can’t fault Teixeira and Rodriguez for not getting runs in with the bases loaded. They’ve both been hitting. They just didn’t happen to get it done in these 2 at bats.
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Dare I hope that Gardner’s actually coming around?
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Oof, that 8th inning was rough. Gotta score with bases loaded and one out. Some brutally bad at-bats by the team’s two coldest hitters.
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Yet ANOTHER first pitch swing with the bases loaded.
And yet ANOTHER game the Yankees have just about let slip away.
Dotel walks the bases loaded, the washed up old bitch who should retire after this year Jeter strikes out like one then another swing for the fences instead of making Rauch work a bit.
Disgusting. If the Yankees win tomorrow, their 15-9 start is weak and quite frankly, awful, cuz it could’ve been 18-6 if they were 100% concentrated on playing which I don’t think these guys are.
Where’s the comeback in them, too?
No more Joe Girardi Show and Yankees On Deck crap after this year. Did the 1998 Yankees have that crap? No. Time to get back to the oldschool.
Time to drop Jeter in the batting order if he stinks tomorrow because he’d have been given all of 2010 and April 2011 to get his act together and he hasn’t, and 2010 is no longer an anomaly.
Starting May 1st:
Granderson
Swisher
Teixiera
Rodriguez
Cano
Posada
Jeter
Martin
Gardner
Have Jeter and Martin switch places if Jeter continues to stink and if Jeter is dropped to eighth and stinks there, bat him ninth and let him think long and hard about whether he wants to play after this year, cuz how he could look himself in the mirror and think his .263 BA, .330 OBP, 4 HR, 50 RBI ass (what he could finish with) is worth $16M in 2012, $17M in 2013, and $8M in 2014 if he picks up his player option is nothing short of detestable. He’d be stealing money.
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Great ninth by the $450+M boys in the #3 and #4. Cano obviously gets a pass because he showed up tonight with his pair of homeruns unlike the rest of the team save Martin and who Martin drove in.
This team is a .500 team against everyone outside of the Orioles who they aren’t playing until 5/18, unfortunately. Pathetic.
Four in Detroit (I’m guessing they draw Verlander) followed by three in Texas. At least they won’t have to deal with Josh Hamilton.”
It’s funny how Jeter suddenly looks like what he’s been all along: a tremendously average-looking guy. Notice how no one talks about what a heartthrob he is anymore and there are no shots of Jeter signs held up by adoring 30 and under females?
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