Brien Taylor was a highly touted pitcher whose name most Yankee fans will know by the tragic story of the way his career was derailed. He was the first player selected overall in the 1991 draft, and was ranked the #1 prospect in the minors by Baseball America in 1993. But being selected first in the draft guarantees you nothing, as and Matt Bush can attest. So let’s take a look at the two seasons he pitched in the Yankee organization and see if we had someone who was truly exciting, the next big thing, or someone who was already showing troubling signs in his time in the minors. Here are his stats:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | GS | IP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | 20 | Fort Lauderdale | FLOR | A+ | NYY | 27 | 161.1 | 1.159 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 10.4 | 2.83 |
| 1993 | 21 | Albany-Colonie | EL | AA | NYY | 27 | 163.0 | 1.405 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 1.47 |
| 1995 | 23 | Yankees | GULF | Rk | NYY | 11 | 40.0 | 2.075 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 0.70 |
| 1996 | 24 | Greensboro | SALL | A | NYY | 9 | 16.1 | 3.918 | 11.6 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 6.1 | 0.26 |
| 1997 | 25 | Greensboro | SALL | A | NYY | 7 | 27.0 | 3.074 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 17.3 | 6.7 | 0.38 |
| 1998 | 26 | Greensboro | SALL | A | NYY | 1 | 25.1 | 2.053 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 0.65 |
| 2000 | 28 | Columbus | SALL | A | CLE | 0 | 2.2 | 5.250 | 16.9 | 3.4 | 30.4 | 6.8 | 0.22 |
| 7 Seasons | 82 | 435.2 | 1.634 | 7.4 | 0.5 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 1.21 | |||||
| A (4 seasons) | A | 17 | 71.1 | 2.986 | 10.5 | 1.8 | 16.4 | 6.3 | 0.38 | ||||
| AA (1 season) | AA | 27 | 163.0 | 1.405 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 1.47 | ||||
| Rk (1 season) | Rk | 11 | 40.0 | 2.075 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 0.70 | ||||
| A+ (1 season) | A+ | 27 | 161.1 | 1.159 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 10.4 | 2.83 | ||||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/10/2011.
Generated 3/10/2011.
First thing that jumps out at me is that walk rate. It’s way too high. He averaged walking almost 5 men per 9 innings pitched in roughly 320 IP, and that’s facing hitters in A ball and AA. In his 2nd year as a pro, Taylor led the Eastern League in walks with 102 in just 163 IP. I also don’t like the trend of the SO rate declining and the BB/9 increasing as he climbs the ladder. That tells me that as the level of competition has improved, his results suffered. A WHIP of 1.405 in AA would scream middling prospect to me if his name was ‘Joe Smith‘ instead of Brien Taylor. He doesn’t give up many hits, which is good but not all that surprising. When a pitcher has this much trouble throwing strikes hitters take notice and leave the bat on their shoulder. This trend will only become more pronounced as he climbs the ladder to the big leagues unless he learns how to throw more strikes and makes hitters pay for being too patient. HR/9 doubled year over year, which isn’t surprising and is still relatively low. But if that trend continued it could have been an issue by the time he reached the major leagues. Did a good job missing bats (averaging 9.35 SO/9) though again the trend line went downward facing better hitters. Striking out 8.3 per 9 facing AA hitters is nice, but doesn’t scream “best prospect in baseball” to me.
There were also some questions about his work ethic and dedication to improving. In game action he had trouble holding runners on, which is common among pitchers his age. The Yankees requested he report to instructs in the winter to work on his fundamentals. Brien declined, saying he was “tired” from the “pressure” of the season. He was also a poor student, which prevented him from getting into a major college program out of high school. Overall, this looks like the type of prospect who generally gets exposed as he climbs the ladder and faces more advanced competition, where the hitters become more selective and the mistakes get hit harder.
For most of our lives as Yankee fans we’ve heard the cautionary tale of Brien Taylor, who lost a promising career as a can’t-miss prospect due to a hometown bar fight in December of 1993 (the winter he was supposed to be in instructs). But the stats tell a different story, one of a pitcher who was very likely to have failed at the big league level had his control not improved. If the year over year trend on his walk rate had worsened, which is likely as the hitters he faced get increasingly selective, its quite possible he would have never made the big leagues at all. If he did, his stay would have been a short one.
Personally, the tale of Brien Taylor has never bothered me as much as others because we really don’t know where it would have led. Maybe it would have all clicked in and he would have been the next Randy Johnson, who also struggled greatly with his control as a young pitcher. But most pitchers, even the highly talented ones, don’t work out for whatever reason. In his case, everyone gets to point to the fight as the cause of his demise. But pitchers who don’t get into bar fights get hurt all the time, and others who don’t get hurt never figure out how to throw strikes or learn how to pitch. Pitching prospects have such a huge rate of attrition, the odds are against them being successful at the MLB level even under the best of circumstances. Assuming a golden future for Brien Taylor had he stayed home that fateful night is a bet I personally wouldn’t make.
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I think you raise a good point, in that the statistical profile suggests some concerns. That said, I will say that he was fairly young for his league and scouts loved him. I think its tough to judge prospects based on minor league stats.
There are problems, no doubt. He had a high number of unearned runs both years, which tells me the guys behind him weren’t very good. But pitchers can only control their walks, SO and HR, and his control was pretty bad. Being too “tired” to go to instructs bothers me as well.
BTW-If you read an earlier version, give it another look. I had planned on revealing Brien’s name at the end of the piece in an earlier version, then decided against it this morning. As I was editing, the earlier scheduled version posted and I had to start all over again. So for the first hour, this piece was a bit choppy.
Yes he was. He was just 21 in AA and was unhittable. Sure he had high walk rates, but so do a ton of young pitchers. Like we don’t look at ridiculously great minor league stats (Kirk Saarloos, Colter Bean, Edwar Ramirez) in a vacuum without looking at stuff, it’s tough to nitpick a high BB rate when you consider that other than the walks, he was dominating people with top notch stuff. CC, known for his great control now, walked 4.3/9 in the minors. AJ Burnett was at 5.3 BB/9 in the minors and 3.8/9 in the majors. Young guys, especially right out of High School, struggle with BB’s more often than not. Look at Betances as a great example. Because he is trending in the right direction we all consider him a top prospect, and at 21 when Taylor was in AA, Betances was in A walking 5.5/9. Taylor was better, younger and left handed. Not saying he was a sure thing, but he was a great, great prospect.
I don’t disagree he was an outstanding prospect in terms of stuff, but the trend line combined with the questions about work ethic have to concern you. It’s not some tiny sample, either, were looking at over 320 IP. Also, since when is an 8.3 SO/9IP in AA “unhittable”?
I think the Betances comp is apples and oranges since Taylor was 6’3″and shouldn’t have the size-related mechanical issues Dellin does. CC is a bad comp as well. He never had a SO/BB rate less than 2-1 in any full season, and by the time he was 20 years old he was pitching in the major leagues.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sabath001car
Throw out CC and Betances, you can still find a ton of young pitchers, especially out of HS, who struggle with control and get better as they age. Taylor was giving up 6.8 and 7.0 H/9 in his first two years in the pros (with a reasonable BABIP0, that’s what I’m calling unhittible. He gave up just 10 HR’s in those 320+ innings. He was unhittable.
You’re putting too much weight on H/9 and not putting it into context. Hideo Nomo had ridiculously low H/9 rates as well, because his control was so bad there was no point swinging the bat. Why put a ball in play if the pitcher will give you a free pass?
In my view, walk rates are the most troubling in the lower levels because the hitters are so undisciplined to begin with. They get themselves out by swinging at garbage. As you climb the ladder, that happens less and less. The lack of control Taylor displayed is something that doesn’t work on the MLB level. Leading the EL in walks is not something to be brushed aside.
Having a high BB ratio does not equate having a low hit ratio. He still has to get 3 outs per inning, regardless of how many guys he’s walking, so the denominator doesn’t change. I don’t want to ignore the BB ratio, but baseball history is littered with pitchers who have control issues in the minors that get better with age. Even with AJ he has cut way back since the minors. I think looking at his BB stats is in a way revisionist history, he was the best pitching prospect in baseball for a reason, despite the high BB ratio. It’s not like that BB ratio didn’t exist at the time, when just about every evaluator in baseball agreed he was the #1 guy. They knew it, and looked at the total package and put him #1. The only statistical issue he had was walks, which, to the scouts, was more than overcome by everything else.
He was #1 after he was drafted, #2 after his first season in A-Ball and #18 after his AA campaign. The talent evaluators saw the same thing I do, and were concerned about it.
BTW-It’s possible the bar fight factored in, but I don’t think so. The bar fight was initially reported by Boras as just “a bruise” before the medical came back. Also, the fight occurred in late December, at a time when most of these lists were either out or should be completed. But I’ll see if I can find anything.
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Good piece. FYI, Todd Van Poppel was not taken first. He was the No. 14 pick in the 1990 draft.
Right, ranked #1 by BA but not selected first. I’ll swap out the immortal Matt Bush for Todd.
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brien taylor was and is a humble guy. most of what you are writing is crap. he wasn’t at a bar for starters. his brother was and 2 guys beat the hell out of him. brien went to the guys house and wanted to find out what was the deal. he was jumped and when his labrum was torn when he fell. brien was having his mechanics tinkered with and changing his motions all before this. he would have been great and should’nt be considered a bust because he didn’t get a fair shake. anyone with morals would have gone to defend their brother. nobody thinks they are going to wind up getting hurt and losing their career. get the facts before you post hear say