With Opening Day just two weeks away and players being cut on a daily basis, the makeup of the Opening Day roster is becoming exceedingly clearer. Let’s take our first stab at predicting the final 25 that the Yankees will take north with them:
Everyday Players
C
1B
2B
SS
3B
LF
CF
RF
DH
There are no surprises here, as all of these players were handed jobs before camp started and did nothing to lose them. I have not noticed Martin behind the plate at all, which is a very good sign when discussing catcher defense. He should be able to ward off Jesus Montero for the time being.
Bench
BUC Jesus Montero
OF/PH
UIF Eduardo Nunez
IF
As Larry noted yesterday, this is one of the strongest benches that the Yankees have fielded in a long time, assuming that Chavez remains healthy. Candidates like , , and Brandon Laird never really got any traction in camp, which makes Nunez and Chavez near locks to come north, and the injury to does the same for Montero. That said, unless Montero is killing the ball early in the year, I think he is slated to return to Scranton once Frankie returns.
Rotation
The first three are obvious, but after that there are 3 guys (Nova, Garcia, and ) for 2 spots. Nova has been very impressive in camp, and the sense I get from the beat writers is that the club wants him to make the rotation. Between the other two, I would put Garcia in the rotation due to his adequate 2010 and better likelihood than Colon of staying healthy, and I expect the Yankees to reach a similar conclusion.
Bullpen
Colon, , and are all in the mix for that final bullpen spot, and the Yankees will likely lose the two players who do not make the initial team. I would prefer to keep Mitre, who is a pretty good bet to give you slightly above replacement level performance out of the long man spot, but I expect (as does Joel Sherman) the Yankees to look at the great pitching depth they have at AAA and decide that Mitre is expendable and that Colon is the better upside play. The way to keep all of their options open is to send down, put Colon in the rotation, and keep Mitre in the bullpen, but that was made incredibly unlikely by Nova’s spectacular performance last night. Another option would be to send down for April and use his spot to audition either Colon or Sanchez, but I have not heard anything to suggest that Logan will not make the team. (Edit: I was under the impression that Logan had an option left, but as commenter bg90027 notes, that is not the case).
Do you see the Yankees doing anything differently? What would your 25 man roster look like?
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I have everything identical, with the exception of Mitre for Colon. I just don’t see him doing enough over the next couple weeks to justify him earning the long man spot over Mitre.
And with Nova’s great outing last night, it’s looking more and more like he’s going to be a lock for the 4th or 5th starter spot.
He may not have to considering Mitre and Joba could both start the year on the DL… The only argument I can make for Colon over Mitre though is that neither is great and Colon is a fresh face, other than that neither is really better than the other.
I would actually rather see Romulo get the long man spot over Colon or Mitre because of his stuff.
I agree with everything you posted. The tough decision as you said is the Mitre and Colon decisions. Colon if he continues to pitch well is a very good option for the final pen spot. I can’t see the Yankees sending Logan down even though he has had a poor spring if only because he is only one of 2 lefties in the pen. If the Yankees do choose Colon over Mitre if does give them a little more depth at starting if necessary. We will see how it shakes out in about 10 days.
Boone Logan is out of options. He can’t be sent down. I agree with the rest of what you said.
For some reason I thought he had one left. Thanks, I changed the post.
Y’know, after all the hemming and hawing over what the Yankees did and didn’t do this offseason, that’s still a pretty nice-looking 25-man.
Was just thinking the same thing. Very solid, really only one hole in the rotation marring it. Doesn’t even need to be an ace caliber guy, even a Ryan Dempster type would really plug that hole.
I actually agree and disagree here Mo, if we are talking purely about this regular season and making the playoffs then yes Dempster is more than fine and with an adition along those lines I don’t see us missing the postseason but if you are talking playoffs it isn’t enough.
I have been on record quite a bit saying I believe in this team for the regular season but we won’t win the WS without adding a high end number 2 or a 1A caliber starter.
To go into any ALCS or WS series with Hughes starting game 2, Burnett game 3 and Nova/Dempster game 4 isn’t a recipe for success IMO, Hughes has shown a tendency to tighten up in the playoffs and we can’t assume he is just over that and having to go from the 3 starter last year to the number 2 guy behind CC would be a lot of pressure on a young man who doesn’t respond well right away to pressure situations
We ultimately need someone to bump Hughes down 1 spot in the playoff rotation for us to have a run in my opinion, my other concern with a Dempster type is having to give up a Betances or someone of that group for what is a rental or mid rotation guy.
Even going further than this year and looking into the offseason I still think it would be worth slightly over paying for a Josh Johnson type this season because of the leverage it would then give you with Sabathia and it takes away from the pressure of being in a similar situation again next season. Basically I guess I’m saying I’m in favor of going after a big dog even if it means overpaying because of the talent it brings back and the problems it solves rather than trying to bring in a saftey patch to plug a hole for a year before a bigger hole bursts open, or settling for a mid level guy because of cost.
Agreed. And as much focus as there has been to the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation, the keys to the season are AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes. If they both pitch well, this team will be better than last year’s version.
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Putting Mitre on the 15 day dl for awhile since he just pulled a muscle. would keep him on the team. Sanchez is probably trade bait or will be released if no takers.Of course you could put Colon on the dl too if you really want to save sanchez. You can claim he needs to build arm strength in extended spring training with all the time he has missed over the past couple years i doubt there would be any resistance.
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