Back in mid-September, Matt, Mike and I all weighed in on what we thought Derek Jeter would be worth to a prospective suitor the Yankees and what kind of contract we realistically thought the Yankees would bestow upon their captain.
Here’s what we concluded at the time:
| Preference | What he’ll get | |
| Matt | 3 years/$36M | 4 years/$80M |
| Mike | 1 year/$10M | 4 years/$80M |
| Larry | 1 year/$7.5M | 4 years/$80M |
Clearly we were all on the same page as far as what we expect the Yankees to do, though we differed a bit on what we felt Derek was really worth. At the time of that writing, Derek was hitting .261/.329/.369, .314 wOBA and 1.7 fWAR through September 12, a season worth $6.9 million according to Fangraphs.
Derek picked himself up significantly over the season’s final weeks, ending the year at .270/.340/.370, .320 wOBA and 2.5 fWAR, for a season worth $9.8 million. As noted yesterday, Derek’s wOBA was second among American League shortstops behind , and his fWAR was third, after Ramirez and . Derek’s career-low OBP was second in the AL to and also behind the OBPs of four NL shortstops — , , and .
The Yankees now find themselves over a barrel, having to negotiate with the face of their franchise after the worst season of a 10-year contract that paid him $189 million. For all the talk of the Yankees’ endless pockets, it makes zero financial sense for them to overpay their 36-year-old declining shortstop, yet nearly everyone around the game expects them to. New York Magazine even got in on the Derek Jeter speculation this week, with an impressively Saber-friendly Intelligencer one-pager not only citing the aforementioned $9.8M Fangraphs dollar value but also utilizing a shortstop WAR comparison (not to mention quoting our buddy Alex Belth). We can only dream that the New York tabloids could one day take such a progressive, analytical and realistic look at what an iconic, well-past-his-prime player is actually worth.
What would be a fair, market-value offer to if he weren’t ? Clearly Mike’s $10 million/year prediction wound up coming the closest. If I were the Yankees, I’d offer a take-it-or-leave-it two-year deal at $10 million per, with a written clause stating that if Derek can’t keep his OBP above .350 after April 2011 he is to be moved to the bottom-third of the batting order.
Quite frankly, the thought of the Yankees paying Jeter $20 million a year to lead off and ground out to shortstop on the first pitch of every at-bat while getting on base a mere 34% of the time makes me want to retch, and if the Yankees truly are in the business of winning, the team needs to recognize that allowing Jeter to dictate the terms of where on the diamond he plays and his location in the batting order, not to mention the size and length of his deal, will all negatively impact the team’s future ability to compete.
Unfortunately, as mentioned previously, it’s not as if the Yankees have many other options. Bill Madden, in one of his typical crazycakes Sunday columns posited that the Yankees believe that Eduardo Nunez could be their starting shortstop of the future. As noted by this obviously hearkens back to “ is our center fielder,” and anyone with a brain knows this is likely another instance of the team trying to drive the trading price of a weak chip up, but it still underscores the paucity of available shortstop talent.
Even if the Yankees did the unthinkable and weren’t willing to pay Jeter the king’s ransom he’ll be demanding, Nunez is no one’s idea of a full-time shortstop. According to minorleaguesplits.com’s Major League Equivalency calculator, Nunez’s 2010 in AAA would equate to a .250/.294/.325 line in the Majors. Numbers that even legendarily bad Yankee shortstop Alvaro Espinoza (career .254/.279/.331) could spit on.
And there aren’t exactly a slew of appealing free-agent options out there. Unless you believe can ever again come anywhere near his career-high .355 wOBA from 2008 (which seems highly unlikely after a .292 mark in 2009 and .313 this past season for the Twins), or don’t want to throw up at the site of ‘s .300 career OBP, there isn’t anything particularly compelling.
And forget about the trade market — the aforementioned top four shortstops in the NL aren’t going anywhere, and even if their teams were to listen to a potential offer it wouldn’t even be worth discussing because the player cost would be stratospheric.
So we’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. The Yankees need , but also needs the Yankees. There’s been discussion about Derek moving off shortstop, but that makes even less sense than signing him to a $20M a year deal — if his bat can barely carry shortstop, the weakest-hitting position on the diamond, what makes anyone think he’ll be a positive asset at third base, the outfield or designated hitter? I still expect the team to sign him to something like a four-year, $80 million deal, but would be very pleasantly surprised if they could knock it down to three years, and even giddier if they were able to agree to $15M a year.
Derek knows he’s worth more to the Yankees than any other team, but can he really believe he’s still a $15-$20 million/year player? If he wants at least one more ring before hanging those spikes up, he needs to do the selfless thing and not hamstring the Yankee payroll, so that they can bring in whatever additional pieces they may need. That means signing a contract for what you’re actually worth and being willing to move down in the lineup for the greater good of the team, and if Derek is able to come close to doing either or both of those things, he’ll regain a lot of the respect I’ve lost for him during the past season.
For more on the Jeter situation, be sure to also check out Steve’s and Jay’s fine work at the Pinstriped Bible as well as NoMaas’s take.
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Pay the man. Whatever he wants. Without him, we're talking about 32 years without a title, 29 years without a Pennant, no Hall of Fame for Joe Torre, Wade Boggs without a ring, Paul O'Neill as a Cincinnati Red, Chuck Knoblauch as the Yankees' very own Bill Buckner (1998 ALCS Game 2), Mariano Rivera as somebody else's closer from 1999 onward, and the Curse of Thurman Munson.
Uncle Mike,
All due respect, but that's the one of the sillier things I've ever heard. Jeter just made $189 million for his services. Why on earth should the Yankees pay another king's ransom for services already rendered?
A contract should be doled out based on what you can reasonably expect the player to produce going forward, not because of some past glory. Don't get me wrong; I'm certainly grateful for all Derek's meant to the franchise and all of the wonderful and happy memories, but those days are long gone now.
Jeter's past his prime and on the decline of his career, and Yankee fans need to accept that. I don't understand this ridiculous mindset that Jeter should get whatever he wants because he's Derek Jeter. He's already earned more money than he'll ever need for a lifetime; there is absolutely no need to continue overpaying this man.
UM – Thanks for clearing that bit up for us.
Lar – Thanks for using reason.
I think the Yankees should aim for a contract that is heavier on the incentives with a lighter guaranteed check. As he approaches 3000 hits and hopefully far beyond, he becomes quite a draw, making himself worth far more to the Yanks than his crappy numbers may suggest. That's without even getting into iconic status and intangible leadership value (which I know you all would trade for a decent OPS).
I don't know all the details of A-Rod's contract, but isn't a good chunk of his potential millions contingent on eclipsing HR milestones? Something similar for Jeter with regards to hits and runs could be appropriate, and clauses addressing negative performance (such as Larry's batting order drop clause) might contain the right balance of carrots and sticks to get a better season from the Captain.
As I've stated before, I see him returning to his career numbers next season, though perhaps with less pop – he may never hit another HR. I think 4 yrs is fair, hopefully at 12-15 mil.
Charles,
I wouldn't have a problem with a lighter AAV with incentives built in, but unfortunately it's hard to see Jeter going for that. He'd probably take it as an affront like Torre did.
I would be ecstatic if he could bounceback to his career numbers. Stranger things have happened, but I just don't see it happening. At this point I think I'd be happy with a return to his sub-par 2008 numbers.
If they can get a deal done for no more than $60M total I will consider that a small victory.
Hey guys,
i think the reason we all expect the Yankees to overpay for Jeter is because we understand his worth to the Yankees beyond his performance as a player. Besides the obvious merchandise and ticket sales (I do believe Jeter has his fans who specifically come to see him play), you have to wonder what the dollar amount is for the 3000 hits. If the Yankees printed their own money, Jeter's face would be on the cover. As we've all written at one time or another, he's the face of the franchise… Jeter is probably the biggest sports star in the history of the city – and that's really saying something.
I also don't think Jeter's salary is going to deter the Yankees from spending on another player, and I don't think any player's salary effects ticket pricing, so what's to worry how much he makes? I believe the Yankees comments about sticking to a budget the same way I believed, "Bubba Crosby will be our opening day center fielder." I think Cashmen always continues to talk after he closes his month. The rest of that sentence goes "if the season were to start in the next minute." When they say stuff like, "We're operating on a budget now,' the rest of the sentence that they don't say out loud is, "until it doesn't suit our purpose. then we'll spend whatever we want."
they always do.
Hey Jamie,
I think those are good points, although it begs a follow-up question: Do Yankee fans really care that much about 3,000 hits? Because I don't at all. I mean, I guess it'll be mildly cool to see Jeter collect his 3,000th hit, but as far as winning championships goes a personal counting milestone has nothing to do with anything.
I guess the pursuit of 3,000 will put more fannies in the seats, but it's not like Yankee fans only come out to watch the team play when someone's about to reach a significant milestone.
Hey Larry,
Good to talk with you guys after so long!
Like you, the quest for 3000 (or whatever they'll call it – I guarantee they'll call is SOMETHING) doesn't get me that excited, but it would be a fun moment if you're there the day it happens.
I do think the Yankees will sell some extra seats as he gets close – this is the sort of thing that I think will bring in the marginal Yankee fan, or just sports fans in general, or Yankees fans that haven't been to a game in a while.
Am I dodging the question? Sorry. Analytical Yankees fans like us don't care. But I guarantee there is a large segment of Yankees fans that do care very much. I haven't watched a game with my mom in a while, but I bet she's going to be into it. She watches every game anyway, but this is the sort of thing I could see her getting swept up in.
There are so many different types of yankees fans – there are the folks you see at every single game, the tourists, the fans that only come out once or twice a year… (I've moved into this camp since 2008… also the first year i had an HD TV… hmm…) I'm sure I'm leaving some folks out, but some fans will be into this in a major way
I think three years, 55/60. Hopefully, if you're
offering 60, the third year is an option. Jeter stays at short for 2011, move him to DH/3rd in 2012 if Montero works out, and you can find a league average shortstop via trade. The Yankees don't have to sign someone long term, they have options in the minors, and free agency every year.
My guess is 4 years at $70 mil ($23, $17, $15, $15) with the understanding that he might be moved out of the first spots in the lineup, and with Jeter's agreement that he will move to 3B in 2012 or 2013.
6 years, $10 mil per with incentives for hits, WS, BA, the works…you heard it heard first
If the Yankees sign Derek Jeter to a six-year contract I might have to switch allegiances to another franchise. Hard to think of too many moves that could impact the team's ability to win moreso than this particular prediction.