Call it a (stupid) hunch, but I have a feeling that the Hot Stove is going to pick up this week. Thanksgiving is a week and a half away and I think that agents, executives, and players will want to hammer out some deals before they all retire to their corners of the world for my favorite holiday.
Before that happens, though (if it happens), I think we should run down what I see as the needs and wants of the Yankees for the 2010-2011 Hot Stove Season.
1. A starting pitcher–NEED
2. Two starting pitchers–WANT
3. A LOOGY–Half need, half want
4. A starting outfielder–WANT
5. A bench outfielder–Half need, half want
6. A backup catcher–WANT
Those are the six basic player-types we’ve seen the Yankees linked to this off season, and that’s how I see their degree of importance.
One starting pitcher, be it Cliff Lee or Andy Pettitte, is a must. The Yankees need that one pitcher to have a solid rotation. If they miss out on BOTH those guys, they could be in trouble. There are other pitchers they could sign, but they’re big drop offs. Even the internal options are weak, especially since Joba Chamberlain’s been officially relegated to the bullpen. There is always the trade market, but it’s yet to really develop and we’re not quite sure who’s available (unless Dan Uggla can pitch).
Two starting pitchers, however, is more of a want than a need. If the Yankees sign just one of Lee/Pettitte, they could probably just use Ivan Nova as a fifth starter for a while and wait to see if improvement was needed.
Having two LOOGYs is always nice and if the Yankees can find one at the right price, they should do it. However, they shouldn’t over extend themselves in their search. Another lefty to spell Boone Logan is a bit of a luxury, not a necessity.
A new starting outfielder is definitely in the “want” category, but I’d think that’s a want only for certain fans. I hardly think the Yankees want to bring in one of Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford and any linkage to them is just due diligence or media speculation. With Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher, the starting outfield is definitely set, is definitely relatively cheap, and is definitely productive.
In terms of a bench OF, the Yankees don’t necessarily need to go shopping to find one. They could use some combination of Greg Golson, Colin Curtis, and Brandon Laird and re-sign Marcus Thames. Those are “meh” solutions but they’re likely the cheapest and easiest. They’re also the easiest to correct, should something fall apart during the season, a la Randy Winn.
Last but not least, there’s the backup catcher’s spot. None of us like Francisco Cervelli all that much, but that’s only because he ended up playing a lot more than he should have last year. If he had just been the backup and not been forced to start so many games, he would not have looked nearly as awful. Since the Yankees are probably going to deploy Jesus Montero as the starting catcher and use Jorge Posada as the primary DH/back up catcher, it’s less likely that Cervelli will see extended playing time. Because of this projected lesser playing time, and his low cost, the Yankees should just stick with Frankie at the back up catcher’s spot.
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If the Yanks whiff on signing Cliff Lee, then i’m 99% sure Pettitte straight up calls Cashman the next day and tells him that you’ve got a serious problem ’cause Pettitte is not coming back to that mess of a rotation.
Pettitte is waiting for Lee to decide. If Lee signs here, i’m sure Pettitte re-ups for 2011. Pettitte wants to go out pitching for a playoff winning, WS contending team. The Yankees without Lee simply are not that.
I agree with your analysis, however I don’t think that we can 100% rule out Joba returning to a starting role (if he is not traded). Remember last spring, Cashman was still saying, “we view Joba as a starter long term,” even as he was announcing that Hughes had won the 5th starter job for 2010. If Joba had been really dominant in the relief role he re-assumed this year, I don’t think there would be any question at all about his role; but his lack of consistency coming out of the pen could lead to another shot at the #5 slot, depending on who the Bombers sign this winter and how everything shakes out in the spring. As a starter, Joba can utilize all 4 of his pitches, rather than fastball-slider; I think his reliance on just 2 pitches cost him, as his control of the slider was wildly inconsistent. If the Yanks sign Lee and Pettite, or Lee and then Nova steps up in the spring, it is moot; otherwise, Joba just might get another shot.
He can’t even get out in the 8th inning and you want him to start? I think the Yanks know what they got in him. He’s a reliever.
An average reliever at that.
Bench OF is a Need, not a Want. Thames is not under contract so even if he can fill it, they need to sign him or someone else. Laird is a potential solution but he’s not going to get handed the job so they at least NEED to sign someone to compete with him in spring training. Starting OF isn’t even a WANT for most reasonable fans. I don’t think a backup catcher is even a WANT if you are talking about one on the level of someone deserving of a guaranteed major league contract. I also think you could add another bullpen arm righty or lefty being a WANT. If they were to get a lefty like Downs that is more than a LOOGY , he could fill both roles.
A good lefty in the pen is a Need. As Cashman has stated himself all off season.
GOOD being key… if we don’t get a Down, Fuentes or maybe Ohman (not completely sold on Ohman) then I’m not sure if there is a lefty I would want let alone need, Logan came into his own this year and I’m sure we can find a De La Rosa or something in the system to be a strict left on left.
I’m not in love with Downs either because I don’t like going multiple years on lefties (see Damaso Marte) it’s just too much of a gamble, I would rather have a Fuentes or Ohman on 1 year over Downs for 2-3 years.
Back up catcher? Waste of money with Cervelli and Posada already there, assuming Montero makes it.
Why wouldn’t Nova, Pendleton, Phillips and/or Brackman (by mid season) get a chance to start?
What’s the point of minor leagues if you don’t give that type a chance.Just a place to develop players you trade?
Warren isn’t far behind them either.
Yankees are going to need to save money somewhere, especially if they sign Lee.
I believe it’ll be with ancillary pitching.