Ever since Derek Jeter was handed another Gold Glove award yesterday, the old debate about fielding metrics and their value has once again come to the forefront of baseball discussion on the internet. The statheads have decried Jeter being awarded the honor, pointing to practically every available metric to show that Jeter is an awful defensive player. The traditionalists have basically retorted with “he’s not that bad,” stating that he has legendary instincts on the field and rarely makes mistakes, as evidenced by his low error count and league-leading fielding percentage.
Mark Feinsand spoke to who had the following to say:
“In my opinion I think he’s well-deserving,” the scout said. “I know his range is not as good as a lot of other guys, but aside from that, I still think he’s above average.”
“You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see that his range is declining, but that’s age,” the scout added. “He’s still very good. He’s not able to move left and right as well as he used to, but he always seems to be standing in the right place at the right time.”
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“Before, he was above average range-wise, and now he’s just average. I don’t think his defense is going to become a negative for him for quite some time,” the scout said. “They say that great outfielders never have to dive, I think that applies to Jeter, too.
“Because he’s older, a little more wise and he knows opposing hitters, how infields play, his catcher, his pitcher – all those factors. Good shortstops have instincts, and I put an 80 on his instincts this year.
“If you were going to create a baseball player, you’d want him to have Derek Jeter’s brain. That’s part of who he is and that’s never going to change, even if he’s a tick slower. He’s smarter than he was when he was younger.”
That’s the basic gist of the arguments in Jeter’s favor. Another element to the argument is that UZR does not like Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, and therefore must be fatally flawed. I would like to address defensive metrics in general, and in the process discuss Derek Jeter’s defense.
The defensive metrics that we have are far from perfect. They are all subject to sample size issues, some have inherent biases, and all must cope with the fact that with the technology currently in play, we are unlikely to measure defense with any semblance of exactitude. Additionally, some of the more popular metrics that are based on batted ball and hit location data compiled by video scorers, such as UZR and +/-, are beholden to evaluations that are at least partially subjective. For example, in an excellent Baseball Prospectus article yesterday, Colin Wyers discussed range bias, in which a players range influences his expected outs. Put simply, it suggests that a player with poor range can actually have his UZR or +/- inflated because the scorer who is marking the game will mark a ball that he could not reach out of the player’s zone incorrectly. This subjectivity means that these metrics should not be taken as gospel, and are not fit to be used to evaluate defense with the same degree of confidence as wOBA or FIP might be used to measure other elements of the sport.
This does not make the metrics worthless. Consider that the alternative method for judging defense is to base your evaluations on your observations and the observations of others. Such evaluations are inherently subjective, particularly because most of those doing such evaluations tend to watch particular players a lot more than others, or only get to watch 1 or 2 players at a position a night. Conversely, the evaluations used in metrics are the product of scorers who work hundreds of games and tend to have set parameters within which to work. This does not necessarily make them better, but it does suggest that they have a larger sample size from which to draw.
The point is that there is no perfect way to evaluate defense right now, and that we should try and consider ALL of the data that we have before making an evaluation. A year ago, I might have blindly pointed to UZR and ripped the voters for yesterday’s results. But with all of the questions that have been raised by people such as Colin since that point, I think doing so is irresponsible, and trusts the metrics past the point that its own creators do. As such, it makes sense to look at UZR, but look at DRS, TotalZone, Fan Scouting Reports, nFRAA, fielding percentage, errors, putouts, assists, other fan opinions, the thoughts of scouts, and your own observations as well.
Looking at the full picture like that will give you a much better understanding of where a player stands defensively relative to his peers. That is why I had no issue with Robbie Cano or Mark Teixeira winning yesterday. Some of the metrics like them, some do not, the fans think they are excellent, scouts agree, and my personal observation confirmed that perception. I cannot say with any sort of accuracy that they were the best players at their positions, but I believe they belong in the conversation and have no problem with either player winning. By the same token, I would have been just fine with either of them losing as well. Anyone who thinks they can tell you with exactitude who is the best defensive player at a position is exhibiting immense hubris, believing themselves to be able to block out the incredible amount of bias that goes into such a subjective evaluation. All we can say with at least a bit of certainty at this point is whether someone belongs in the conversation, and even that can get murky depending on which sources of data you value most.
This brings us to Jeter. Everything other than errors, fielding percentage, and the subjective evaluations of a minority of fans, reporters, and scouts sees him as a poor defensive player. Regarding errors and fielding percentage, I do not think anyone can deny that they are an incomplete measure at best. Jeter makes all the plays he can get to, but as Ben Kabak noted, you cannot drop what you do not reach. If you hate advanced metrics and do not want to use them, that is fine. Let’s stick to basic statistics such as putouts and assists, which can help us complete the fielding percentage and errors picture in evaluating defense. Let’s look at how Yankee shortstops stacked up in these areas.
Yankee shortstops made 211 putouts, relative to a league average of 241. Now, some putouts are based on your other fielders, particularly the ones that deal with force plays on throws from other fielders. However, Yankees SS graded out just fine on putouts on force plays, with 107 relative to an average of 102. The problem was on balls caught (88 relative to a 114 average) and tag plays (17 relative to a 26 average), which are more directly attributable to the SS itself. Looking at assists, which are likely a better measure of how many balls the SS is getting to with the ability to then make a play, shows a similar issue, as Yankee shortstops had 405 relative to a league average of 466.
This is not a new issue. Yankee shortstops have been below league average in these areas for EVERY SEASON in the Jeter era other than 2005, and were well below average in most years. This despite the fact that the defenders surrounding Derek were usually around average in these areas, suggesting that it was not the pitchers or other conditions that created this deficiency. These are not advanced metrics, they are very basic stats that simply tell us how many plays the guy makes. Is it perfect? No. But neither is fielding percentage, and this serves to poke a giant hole into the fielding percentage argument.
As for those observers whose eyes tell them that Jeter is still a superior defender, I think some of that has to do with his reputation. Also, as @AndyInSunnyDB notes, missing that many assists still only comes out to about one a series, so the naked eye is much more likely to observe a lack of errors than a missed play per series. However, even if you feel differently and want to take those evaluations at face value, I still think the weight of the evidence leans strongly in favor of the conclusion that Jeter is a poor defender. Both basic and advanced metrics show that he does not make close to the number of plays an average shortstop makes, let alone an elite talent at the position. Most fans, Yankee or not, see him as a poor defender, and it has become obvious to many that he will soon need to be moved off the position.
I am uncertain that I have the expertise or the unbiased, objective evidence to declare Jeter the worst shortstop in baseball. But I can state with a fair amount of confidence that he does not belong in the conversation for the Gold Glove.
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I’ve seen Alex Rodriguez drop a pop-up. I’ve seen Luis Castillo drop a pop-up. I’ve never seen Derek Jeter drop a pop-up. Perhaps the voters are looking at what happens after the ball is in the glove–taking the name of the award quite literally. Afterall, its not the Golden Range award or the Dazzling Dive award. Jeter will never throw to the wrong base, rarely costs his team a game with a booted play, never fails to be in position for the cut-off or to back up a throw. Michael Young he is not.
In a late and close game with a runner on base I’d rather have Derek Jeter than Rey Ordonez (Great range and hardeware to “prove” it) 8 days out of the week. The majority of plays in baseball are of the “routine” variety, hence the adj “routine”. So the guy that is most reliable on those plays is the guy I take. BJ Upton had way better range than Jeter–would you rather have him at SS?
All this to make a completely different point–any GG won by a SS not name Omar Vizquel in the past 15-20 yrs or so is undeserved anyway.
Right, but he’s only 5-10 plays better than his competition on the routine plays. He is 55-60 plays worse on the non-routine, and actually has fewer routing plays due to his range. That is a very large gap.
Jeter dropped a pop up in the first game of the first series in Anaheim last year. The Friday night before the All-Star break. IIRC, it ultimately let the tying run score in the 9th and cost the Yankees the game.
Range is important. A shortstops range is the difference between an out and single into the outfield. Which is why errors are a useless stat. I’d much rather have a shortstop with ridiculous range knocking down a ball, getting an error for it and preventing a guy from going 2nd to home than an outfield single, no error and a run. Range matters.
Sooooo, American shortstops made 211 putouts?
Jeter had 180 putouts this year Elvis Andrus had 240.
Lol. Yes, I know, its YankeeS.
Great post Moshe! I too have my difficulties with accepting defensive statistics such as UZR as the be-all and end-all. I have this trouble because they can often fluctuate wildly from year-to-year, and the measurement methodology is not completely objective (potentially subject to measurement biases). Sometimes, these statistics don’t seem to pass the eye test (such as Mark Teixeira’s UZR), which poses potential problems for their credibility.
I’m also a little wary of using measurements like putouts/assists as a surrogate marker of range because the number of opportunities could be vastly different for shortstops on different teams. A shortstop on a team with a bunch of groundball pitchers could have many more opportunities than a shortstop on a team with a staff of strikeout artists.
The more advanced defensive metrics definitely have their uses as well as flaws. However, I’m not sure they have earned the right to be treated as gospel (a status that has perhaps been prematurely granted in my mind) in the same way as some advanced offensive metrics (OPS+, WOBA, etc), which are easier to understand and more objective in their measurement. Hopefully, as available data get better, more precise and effective metrics will emerge.
In the end what it ultimatley comes down to is that none of it is full proof and as of yet we have no definitive marking that can say some is X good vs someone being Z good in the field and until then the best we have is to take everything in to consideration and ultimatley make a decision probably somewhere in the middle of what stats say and what we see.
I’d like to know how winning 90-100 games every season effects totals like putouts & chances.DO Yankees play more 8.5 innings games ? DO they play more, less or the same amount of extra innings games?
DO Jeter’s stats hold up the same on the road as at home or is thee something about the stadium?
Do Yankees have more fly ball pitchers than other teams?
If Jeter is giving away so many hits, how do we win so many games?
Is not making any errors , positioning well, making the tags, covering the correct bases and overall playing smart in the equation, or is it only the guy with the best range who is the best fielder?
Interesting how the people who think Jeter can’t field are often the same people who thought Posada was a good defensive catcher the past 10 years.LOL.
I have never, ever, in the last 15 years, heard ANYONE say Posada is a good defensive catcher.
Considering his teammates face all of those issues yet do not have the same putout and assist deficiencies, Im quite comfortable saying its Jeter.
As for this:
“Is not making any errors , positioning well, making the tags, covering the correct bases and overall playing smart in the equation, or is it only the guy with the best range who is the best fielder?”
Yes, those things are in the equation, but the numbers say Jeter doesnt make those plays any more frequently, and some of them he does less frequently, than other shortstops.
“If Jeter is giving away so many hits, how do we win so many games?”
If Aj Burnett is so bad, how do we keep winning 95 games?
Moshe, I think you make a good point about confirmation bias and his behavior, and the basic uncertainty of a lot of defensive metrics. But I think that the quote from the scout illuminates exactly what is going on right now.
That scout, and tons of others that defend Jeter, say things like, “His range isn’t good, but besides that he’s a really good defensive player.” They observe that both with their eyes and using statistics. Pretty much anyone can make the same observation – Jeter has really terrible range, and has had really terrible range, for a long time. He also has always been one of the best shortstop in baseball at making plays when he gets to balls, which everyone knows who watches him, we can see in stats, and eventually its what gets him Gold Glove votes.
The problem, I think, is not about how we come about this information. Scouts and managers and players and everyone know that Jeter = Poor Range / Makes Plays. The problem is that people prioritize making plays over getting to balls. If Jeter fielded 400 balls with a .990 fielding percentage, he would only make 4 errors throughout the course of a season, and be lauded as a fantastic shortstop, but only be responsible for 396 outs. But if Jeter made 430 plays with a .970 fielding percentage, he would make 13 errors, but make 417 outs.
Its a hold-over from the pre-Moneyball days. Its not even a stats vs. not-stats thing: people use errors as statistical evidence for debates like this. Its a dumb stats vs. smart stats thing, like the old days of Batting average vs. OBP. Tons of people just don’t have a clue in the world what actually makes a defensive player from a bad one.
Edit: Instead of dumb stats vs. smart stats, the better way to characterize it is probably “Dumb assumptions about baseball vs. Smart assumptions about baseball” since it actually has a whole lot more to do with the answer to the question, “What makes a good baseball player” rather than the answer to the question, “How do you judge what happened on the field?” Thats what the BA vs OBP thing was really about – OBP wasn’t a new thing or substantially different way of measuring things – people were just being dumb about their assumptions.
All of this is ridiculous. He won a gold glove, is it really that devastating? It’s been said for years now that he is the worst ss in MLB even though he always seems to be in the right place, he is intelligent, and he does his job game in and game out. Plus he does has 5 gold gloves and 5 world series rings. I would rather have a reliabe guy as ss who knows the game, pays attention, and does the right thing than go by all this metric crap. Does this metric system, rank who is hitting, how hard the ball was hit, where the ball was it, if their was anyone on base, who was pitching, what field they were playing on? No didn’t think so! So what does this metric system take into account, that the ball was hit in the vacinity of the ss? What if is hit between ss and 2nd or ss and 3rd. In my opinion this metric system was thought up by someone who had nothing better to do and wanted to seem like they knew what they were talking about. There is no accurate way to judge defense by an infielder unless it is a pop up because every ball is hit differently and hit the grass or dirt differently. People just want to be able to complain about something. I’m not saying Jeter deserved or didn’t deserve the gold glove but to go by this number game is dumb. They said he sucked when he first came up and after that but I want to see another ss who had the intelligence to throw Giamabi out at home plate, or make the over the back cathces that Jeter has, back up the 3rd baseman and make the catch, throw the guys at 1st with the jump throw, or the night Moose was pitching and throw the guy at home. That is why all this talk is ridiculous to me, for years and years the numbers have said that he isn’t good, but yet he has made remarkable and routine plays day in and day out. He is reliable, he is smart, and he has been doing a damn good job for the last 14-15 years. I’ll take him any day of the week.
“Does this metric system, rank who is hitting, how hard the ball was hit, where the ball was it, if their was anyone on base, who was pitching, what field they were playing on?”
Yes. UZR and +/- account for all of that.
And I didnt use a metric system. I used a basic number: how many balls did he get to? He grades out MUCH worse than all other shortstops. Much worse. He may not have been atrocious for his entire career, but “damn good job” is inaccurate.
Honestly, you’d be shocked how thorough both UZR and DRS are.
The reason that these statistics work is that all the factors you mention (Degree of difficulty in a play, how hard a ball is hit, etc) are, from Jeter’s perspective, completely random. He doesn’t have any control over the batted ball, he just fields it. So over time, lots of lots of random events happen, and Jeter responds to them by either fielding a ball successfully or not fielding a ball. UZR and DRS measure how often Jeter makes an out from a batted ball versus how often the average shortstop makes an out from a batted ball. Really, that’s all it is. Because there are lots of different types of batted balls, it needs a lot of observations to be all that worthwhile.
But really, Moshe is talking about something a whole lot more simple. Its really, really easy to see that Derek Jeter hasn’t helped the Yankees make a ton of outs on defense during his career. He misses a lot of balls. He always has. “Past a diving Jeter up the middle” is said way too often.
Even if you don’t believe UZR over one year Chase Utley’s been the best 2nd baseman in the NL in UZR 4 out of the 5 past years in UZR. The other year he was second. Despite only playing 117 games at 2nd this year, he led NL 2nd basemen in runs saved. The fact that Jeter has won 5 GGs and Utley none is a complete and utter joke.
It’s really that simple.
Yeah I mentioned that above when I said I’d rather have a player who gets to a ball knocks it down and is charged with an error and keeps a runner from going 2nd to home than one like Jeter who has no range, barely makes any plays, and results in a ton of run scoring singles wiht guys on second. Chase Utley was just the player that came to mind as being screwed by his phenomenal range, since he makes a lot of errors on balls no other 2nd baseman save Ellis would even have a chance of playing. The sabermetric stats are there for a reason. They just give a backing to what you are saying about range, and prove why Jeter is undeserving of every GG hes ever had. Yes over one season the sample sizes for UZR probably aren’t large enough. However, my point was over 5 seasons if a guy has never been lower than 2 in UZR in his league at least one of those years he probably deserved a Gold Glove. That sample size is more than large enough. Conversely, when a guy has had a consistently bad UZR over the past 5 years, like Jeter (I don’t remember his 2009 UZR but part of me feels it was a lot better than 2005-2008, 2010) then you can probably say that guy is a poor to awful defender. Just like I could tell you that Cliff Lee’s godly playoff stats had to come back to the mean. Playoff samples are small. They eventually will come back towards what the guy did in the regular season. The only point of sabermetrics is to look at the game in a smarter way than the randomness of RBIs (a stat i admittedly love even if it is pretty meaningless) and errors. So i don’t get why people are so opposed. We can still have our everyday stats. RBI is great stat and so is batting average. But when my awards are being given out or more importantly my GM is picking a player Id rather they look at the sabermetrics. Theyre more reliable.
One last thing about Utley. The guy made as many out of zone plays as Phillips (36) in 300 fewer innings. Can’t believe he still doesn’t have a GG
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