So I may have been a tad premature in declaring last weekend’s Yankees-Red Sox match-up to be meaningless, as Sunday night’s contest wound up being the most nerve-wracking game I’ve consumed all season. Thankfully the Yankees put an end to any last hopes the Sox may have had with regards to sneaking into the playoffs this past Tuesday, and we can all rest easy this weekend with three meaningless games between the two arch-rivals.
Sure, there’s still the little matter of the AL East crown and best record in the AL to settle, but the Yankees have made it clear that their priority is a rested and healthy team come Wednesday, regardless of whether that first game is played at home against Texas or on the road at Target Field.
There’s a slightly interesting wrinkle — with the Rays losing to last night, the Yankees and Rays once again find themselves tied for first place with identical 94-65 records and three games apiece left to play. However, for the Yankees to win the AL East, they’ll have to win one more game than the Rays do this weekend — finishing with the same record won’t matter, since the Rays hold the tiebreaker (10-8 in the season series). I don’t have particularly high hopes that the Rays will lose two of their last three against the Royals, and so I will be pleasantly surprised if the Yankees do end up finding themselves in first place at the conclusion of the regular season on Sunday. However, I should also add that the Royals taking two of three against the Rays might not be quite as insane as it sounds — in reviewing the data I found that the Royals, much to my surprise, actually have the best wOBA (.343) in the American League over the last 30 days. So who knows, perhaps KC will make a series of it.
The other potential happenings to look for this weekend are whether and/or can get to 30 bombs, and if can add any more extra-base hits to his ledger, to ensure he doesn’t finish with the lowest SLG of his Yankee career (he’s currently at .514; he recorded a .512 SLG in 2004). For purely selfish reasons I would also like to see the Yankees maintain their .003-point wOBA lead over the Sox to ensure they record the top wOBA in all of MLB for the second-straight year.
In tonight’s game, (3.17 ERA/3.96 FIP/4.10 xFIP) gets his third and final regular season tune-up against (4.72 ERA/4.03 FIP/4.66 xFIP). Pettitte, of course, was awful against the Sox in his previous outing, while Daisuke looked nearly unhittable last Sunday. While it would be encouraging to see a strong start from Pettitte, I wouldn’t get too up in arms if he ends up getting shelled — after all, you may recall that in his final regular season start last year he “had no command of [his] fastball, curveball and [his] cutter was flat. There was not one thing [he] could take out of it that was positive,” and of course went on to pitch phenomenally well in the postseason. Now of course the 2009 version of Pettitte wasn’t recovering from a strained groin that sidelined him for two months, so the jury’s still out, but I feel confident that once the adrenaline of the postseason kicks into gear Andrew Eugene will kick it up to his customary next level and pitch as well as he possibly can.
In game two the Yankees and Sox get to play the last Fox Saturday Afternoon Game of Death of the season (and surprisingly, the only one to take place at Fenway Park all year), and if it wasn’t bad enough that the Yankees historically suck at Fenway park on Saturday afternoons, they’ve got the worst pitcher in the American League in the person of (5.33 ERA/4.81 FIP/4.65 xFIP) starting the game for them. And he’s facing (2.33 ERA/3.62 FIP/4.21 xFIP), who has the sixth-highest bWAR (5.2) among pitchers in the American League. I’m not even going to bother analyzing this one — if you were ever interested in betting on baseball, now is your chance to make dumptrucks full of money, as there is no surer thing on earth than the Yankees losing this game. The only way to stack the odds against the Yanks even further would be if (or or ) was starting this game.
And on Sunday, the 162nd game of the year (has it already been 162 games? Opening Day feels like it was just yesterday), Yankees.com doesn’t even have a probable pitcher listed for the final game of the season yet. I’d guess it would have to be some combination of (4.91 ERA/4.42 FIP/4.35 xFIP) and (5.09 ERA/5.78 FIP/5.07 xFIP), especially since Nova will need to get some work in before the playoffs. Supposedly could be tapped if the division crown was still on the line, but between his supposed innings restrictions and the Yankees needing Phil to be a big part of a deep October run, I’d be surprised if that actually happ
ened.
Whoever the Yankees do tab to start will face (4.47 ERA/3.89 FIP/4.41 xFIP), who the Yankees somehow only managed to face twice this year despite 18 contests against the Sox, with the first outing coming way back in the third game of the season and the second one in August. Lackey didn’t allow a run in the April 7 game but was touched up for five on August 7. This one’s probably going to be a pretty ugly affair, with both teams likely to either start or sub most of their scrubs in fairly early on in the game — unless the division is still up for grabs.
Here are the two teams’ offense and pitching numbers:
Boston’s had a pretty strange year. They’re almost certainly one of the better teams not to make the postseason in recent years. They have the second-best offense in the league, and and have delivered top-10-pitcher-in-the-American-League performances. Clearly and had disappointing seasons, but their five-man rotation — including Dice-K — has the potential to dominate anybody if they all pitch to their potential.
What really killed the Sox this year was their bullpen. I first noticed their bullpen issues back in early May and it seems things have only gotten worse. A league-worst HR/9 and FIP are surefire ways to vulture wins or put games even further out of reach. Given the relative stability of the Boston rotation, one would have to assume Theo Epstein’s top priority will be relief pitching this offseason, which means there’s probably a pretty strong chance of becoming a Red Sock.
The Sox boast some unexpectedly strong overall team numbers over the last 30 days for a team that’s gone 13-14 in September, besting the Yankees in all seven of the above-listed categories except OBP. Obviously the 4.56 team ERA has a lot to do with Boston’s middling play.
This is the first series in a while that I don’t even feel comfortable making a prediction on the outcome. I’d like to think the Yankees could take two of three and finish the season out on a high note, but given the uncertainty of who’s going to be pitching and what kind of lineups the Yankees will be fielding, I really have no idea. Let’s just say the Yanks will take two of three, while the Rays lose two of three, and the Yankees end up capturing the AL East flag, which really should be theirs anyway given that they’ve been in or tied for first place for nearly half the season.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
7 Responses to Yankees vs. Red Sox VI: This time it’s not personal
Leave a Reply
-
LIKE TYA ON FACEBOOK!
"especially since Nova will need to get some work in before the playoffs"
Nova is going to be on the playoff roster? I thought they would go with a more experienced arm. Don't get me wrong, I think Nova has good stuff, I just wasn't sure he was ready for this kind of pressure. You know what they say: never believe September.
here are my guesses at the 25 man roster for the playoffs. did i blow it?
http://bomberbanter.com/2010/09/30/projecting-yankees-25-man-playoff-roster/
~jamie
[Reply]
Hey Jamie,
I would actually be surprised if they didn't take Nova at this point. Though he's been roughed up a bit of late, he still represents a far more desirable option than the Gaudins and Mitres of the world. Ideally you won't need a mop-up guy in the playoffs, so there's really no need for a Gaudein or Mitre type. Nova could be a valuable asset in middle relief, where he could hypothetically give 2-3 innings before his customary implosion after turning the order over a couple of times.
I think your roster's very close, although a couple of thoughts:
1) Not sure whether Royce Ring will get the call. I know having another lefty is tempting, and while he did get some big outs against the Rays he really hasn't pitched enough for me to feel comfortable giving him a roster slot.
2) I'd also be surprised if they took both Pena and Nunez, considering they're virtually the same thing, except Nunez has a slight edge with the stick while Pena a slight edge on D.
3) No chance Colin Curtis or Kevin Russo make it. Not that they've had many opportunities, but they've done zilch since May/June. Curtis has an .041 wOBA in 16 September at-bats. Not that Golson's much better, but he'll probably get that slot as a late-inning pinch-runner/defensive specialist.
[Reply]
Hi Larry,
Good to hear from you!
I guess my Nova-thinking is from a Joe Torre school of thought; no way he would take Nova; not enough experience… although they did have Hughes on the playoff roster that one year. he pitched well in relief, too! also, I was wondering if Nova had pitched much out of hte bullpen for anybody on any level. I think he did maybe twice for the Yankees… I guess transitioning from starting to the pen isn't that big a deal…
I think that if the Yankees get the Twins, its harder to leave Ring off – especially if he gets Papi out this weekend.
thanks for clearing up Curtis/Russo/Golson – I had no idea what I was doing there.
as for Pena and Nunez (and ring, to some extent) I was having a hard time coming up with 25 guys; my first pass through the list only netted 22 players. So if not Pena AND Nunez, who am I missing? And if Nova replaces Mitre on my list, who takes Ring's spot?
Thanks!
jamie
[Reply]
Yeah, thankfully the franchise is well past the days of Clueless Joe and his "trusting the reliable veteran" lunacy. How many times have we seen a young pitcher who the Yankees have never seen before come up and destroy them? I feel like I wrote a post every week about this unfortunately common occurrence.
It's silly to exclude someone from the postseason conversation just because they're relatively inexperienced. How can one get experience unless one is given the chance to get postseason experience?
Gah, I hate Joe Torre. So glad he doesn't manage our beloved team anymore.
[Reply]
It sounds like the Yanks will be going with 14 position players and 11 pitchers on the 25-man.
[Reply]
Can't wait to see who's on that 25 man… I only have 10 pitchers on my list. maybe they do plan on using 4 starters – not enough off days….
my biggest problem with Torre was his inability to manage the bullpen beyond one game. Procter, Quantril, Sturtze, Myers… the list goes on and on. I still can't believe torre broke a soft tossing lefty like myers. torre was using him as a long man before he got shipped out of town. his career ended immediately. that was 2007, the same year they handed him the joba rules from on high – "here you go, joe; don't break this guy. and just to make sure, here are some rules."
[Reply]
[...] win effectively ended any remaining hopes the Sox may have had of sneaking into the playoffs, and the season’s last three-game set between the two teams was essentially a formality, though had the Yankees bothered to come play that weekend they may have been able to grab the AL [...]