While waiting for the Yankee-Twin game to resume last night (which obviously didn’t end up happening) I caught some highlights from the Cardinals game on MLB Network and it reminded me that the Yankees may or may not have been pursuing this past offseason. This (a) Made me want to find out how Holliday was doing; (b) Check in on how the other free agents/potential trades the Yankees didn’t end up pursuing/guys the Yankees let go of were performing; and (c) See what some of the Yankees’ potential targets this coming offseason are up to (I expect they’ll be targeting starting pitching, left field and designated hitter, given that Nick Johnson is only signed for one year with a mutual option).
Here are the 2010 season statistics for the major names that the Yankees either didn’t re-sign, traded or passed on last offseason. Stats in all of the tables in this blog post are as of today, Wednesday, May 26, and are in descending order by wOBA for hitters and FIP for pitchers. Guys in yellow will be free agents again after the 2010 season.
Looks like a lot of folks were wrong about being cooked. I don’t recommend envisioning his and ‘s bats in the Yankee lineup right now; it’ll only make you sad. Also, Met fans rejoice — is bringing it despite the lack of power. And the Yanks appear to have made the right call in passing on . For comparison’s sake I’ve tossed in Nick the Walk and Brett Gardner. Depending on when Stick returns and if he remembers how to start hitting again, I would imagine those wOBAs will be reversed at the end of the season.
On the pitching side of the ledger, I suppose it’s somewhat unfair to include on this list, but the Yankees were interested. None of the other guys are setting the world on fire, and though has a pleasant ERA, he’s injured at the moment. There’s no way would have a sub-4.00 ERA in the AL East. And though ‘ FIP may look ugly, guess who has a 4.66 FIP? . I remain curious to see where Sheets’ numbers are at the end of the year and will likely resume the call for the Yanks to sign him if he finishes with reasonable numbers.
The following are players (with their 2010 season stats) that, according to Cot’s, will either be free agents after the 2010 season or have an option (denoted by an asterisk), and may be of interest to the Yankees.
I had no idea that was absolutely raking right now. Werth figures to be a much-talked about name come this offseason, as the Yankees decide whether to hand out a longer-term deal to (also performing very well) or a shorter deal at perhaps greater annual value to the older Werth. Either way, I have a feeling one of those two will end up patrolling left field for the Yankees in 2011.
If the Yankees decide to let Nick the Stick walk, there will be no shortage of DH types available — or Yankeeist favorite would fit into the Yankee lineup quite nicely. I don’t know how many times I can beat the Big Donkey drum, but how could you not love the idea of Dunn probably clubbing 50 home runs what with getting to play 81 home games at Yankee Stadium, and also drawing his customary 100 walks? Dunn is a sabermetrician’s wet dream, and it would be a joy to see him installed in the Yankees’ patient lineup.
It’s pretty incredible that went from “no way the Red
Sox pick up his $12.5 million option” and possibly getting outright released to dangerous again in a month. It seemed like a no-brainer for the Sox to cut ties with Ortiz at the end of the season — though one wonders whether they’d consider bringing him back at a reduced salary — but if he turns in a .370-plus wOBA, then perhaps Theo Epstein decides to see if Ortiz has one more productive year left in the tank without risking upsetting the big man with a salary reduction.
Boston has historically been very good at knowing when to let its superstars go, although Ortiz may turn out to be a special case. One could probably make an argument for Ortiz being the most important Red Sock of all time — they very likely do not win the World Series in both 2004 and 2007 without his incredible contributions — but then again, Bostonians don’t seem to have quite the same level of irrational attachment to the superstars as Yankee fans do. If Papi continued to falter and ended the year with a .300 wOBA, I have a feeling everyone in Boston would be ready to see him go. If somehow ended this season with a pitiful .300 wOBA, you’d still have Yankee fans calling for the team to resign Jeter for $20 million a year.
If Ortiz does hit the market, I wonder if the Yankees would take a gamble on the slugger. It would absolutely kill Red Sox fans to see Ortiz in a New York uniform, and Papi could probably still hit 20 out in new Yankee Stadium. Could you imagine the uproar? I actually don’t know if i can envision Ortiz in a Yankee uniform. But if he ends the year raking and Nick the Stick doesn’t come back or returns in July/August and remains relatively ineffective, it’s actually not that farfetched.
Of the potentially interesting free agent pitchers, only would be worth throwing large sacks of money at. If the Mariners are unable to trade Lee at the deadline, you have to figure the Yankees will be all over the free agent-to-be, especially as they may have up to two free rotation slots depending on whether re-ups for another year and if they decide to resign . A Sabathia-Lee- front three would be rather insane.
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I just realized I forgot to include Eric Hinske and Jerry Hairston —
Hinske: .361/.413/.681; .460 wOBA in 80 PAs.
J-Hair: .235/.277/.303; .255 wOBA in 144 PAs.
I don't necessarily miss Hairston, but the Braves signed Hinske for $1M. The Yankees are paying Randy Winn $2M.
Not sure why Cash didn't bother to bring Hinske back, but this is making the Winn signing — and I didn't think this was possible — look even worse.
Great post, Larry. Obviously it's presumptive to even guess what the team may do next year, though I'd be surprised to see them bring NJ back next year. Dunn would be great, but that would affect the Yankees with regard to deciding how they're going to work out the catching position next year.
Perhaps they'd operate in a similar fashion as this year — Jorge shooting for 115 games and giving Cervelli the rest, but you really can't stick him at DH if you have Dunn around. And no way Dunn is going to play 1B with any regularity with Teixiera on the roster.
Beyond that, left field is another issue. From my vantage, although Crawford is a very, very good (not great) player, his skill set is not one that generally ages well. I'd also be concerned about how many miles he's logged on those legs, many of which came on turf. Werth offers potentially fantastic impact offense and pretty solid defense as well, though the knees are a concern. Between the two, I'd go with Weth (I just don't think Gardner's bat is legit).
Cliff Lee would appear to be the most logical target, though if Javy continues to pitch effectively, he may certainly be the better value if he only gets arb. Still, AJ is better suited as a #3 considering his inconsistency and I don't see Andy coming back. But he's not a #2 anyway.
All this being said, with the virtually guaranteed contracts to Jeter and Rivera, I'd be surprised if they signed more than one of these guys, let alone two.
Thanks JMK; all solid points.
The idea of the Yankees punting a true DH next year (or any year for that matter) will never sit well with me. I understand that Posada won't be catching as many games and we will presumably still want his bat in the lineup when he's not behind the plate, but I'm still a firm believer in having a real DH.
As an aside, it's actually rather mind-boggling that so few teams are getting above-average production out of the one lineup slot solely dedicated to offense.
But back to the point at hand, I fear the Yanks may actually elect to go that route. Prior to the season it seemed the thinking was that Montero might be in the bigs next year, although I'd imagine that idea may have hit the backburner, at least for the time being — if Montero was in the bigs and raking, I could probably live with he and Posada splitting time at DH, but otherwise I'd really like them to get someone like Dunn.
Though Yankeeist didn't exist two season ago I was vehemently advocating for the Yanks to get Dunn last time he was a free agent, although it seemed like the general consensus was that there was no room for Dunn, what with Matsui et. al. on the roster.
While that may have been technically true, I felt that (and this could be completely wrong, but whatever) they could've fit Dunn in there somewhere, alternating between DH and OF. Obviously his defense is horrible, but given my obsession with OBP and SLG I don't see how you can pass on a guy who is a virtual lock for 40 bombs and 100 BBs a year.
All this being said, I think you're probably right in that they only make one big free agent splash, and if they do, it almost certainly won't be Adam Dunn. Crawford/Werth still seem like the most logical candidates, although I wouldn't be shocked at all to see the Yanks reel Lee in as well.
Oh, and if you have a lot of time to kill and what to read more of me calling for the Yanks to sign Adam Dunn, check this out.
Crawford is the main target. If Pettitte leaves, add Lee, maybe Dunn as the DH,
Larry, Eric Hinske wanted more playing time, something he didn't think he would get with the Yankees. That's why he signed with the Braves.
You're kidding, right? Andy won again today, dealing as usual, and you say he's not a #2 anyway. Based solely on the way he has this season, including his stats, he's our #1. If Andy wants to come back, he'll be back, if not he retired on his own terms. The way you dismiss Andy, is disrespectful, as well as rude.
By the way Larry, the way you mentioned Andy reminds me of the way the Yanks treated him before he eventually signed with the 'stros. That was disrespect, as well. Remember what it cost us then? My point, exactly.
Mick,
What on earth are you talking about? Please tell me where in this piece I said anything disrespectful about Pettitte. I'm a huge Pettitte fan — always have been — and was super-pissed when they didn't bother resigning him after 2003.
The only thing I wrote about Pettitte in this entire piece was discussing whether he decides to come back. If he wants to come back, you can be sure the Yankees will welcome him with open arms.
I don't know how you could spend time reading this entire piece and some infer that I don't want Andy Pettitte back or somehow disrespected him. If anything, the Yankees should be worried that Pettitte won't want to come back next year, given that he's been threatening to retire for the last four seasons.
Heres my crystal ball…
2011:
Andy retires, Javy coming off a decent but not solid '10 is not retained. The Yankees pursue Cliff Lee HARD, Lilly is plan B, but in the AL East they'd better get plan A to sign.
Brett Gardner is going to drive in and steal 60, all while hitting .280+. Thats not worthless and I think the Yankees retain him as the starting LF, no Crawford, no Werth. Gardner, Grandy, Swish-same as this year. I see no logic in breaking that up.
The DH is complicated, Montero wont be "the guy" going into next year if he doesnt turn it on fast. If that doesnt happen I think the Yankees may be best served getting someone with versatility and a bat, Ty Wiggington has AL East pedigree, can play all over, is good righty bat, and doesnt have an ego thats going to be an issue if he doesnt get 160 starts and 550 AB's, that and the versatility are vital with an aging team. Adam Dunn could be an option too though he is used to playing everyday and he has practically NO versatility. That said I can see him become that unlucky veteran whose price falls off a cliff and the Yankees wont be looking for a long term solution here. Dunn makes more sense for the Red Sox if they let go of Ortiz honestly.
The 5 slot, the pen, and the bench will likely be patched from within or with lower level acquisitions but I for one would be pleasantly surprised to see the Yankees go out and get Mo's successor since Joba likely aint it.