The Rule of Form

By On October 20, 2009 · 13 Comments · In Uncategorized

I agree and disagree with Steve’s article.  I agree that Joe is getting way too much flack about previous moves that clearly have worked out.  I disagree about the Robertson move, however.  Joe not only miscalculated the matchup (debatable) but he also completely ignored what his eyes told him about the form of his pitcher on the mound that night.   This, too, has to enter into the equation, and I feel like Girardi ignored that factor when making his decision.

The matchup question is debatable.  Steve brings up some fantastic statistics, and it’s true that Kendrick struggles most against sliders, but Aceves does not have a nasty slider or any nasty breaking pitches, so the edge is slight at best.  Robertson has the best breaking pitch between the two of them with his filthy curveball, and his fastball is clearly better, so you could argue that the matchup edge is even or favors D-Rob.  Different pitchers have different sliders and Ace has never faced Kendrick before, so you really can’t tell.  If anything, there’s only a slight edge in Ace’s favor.

That slight edge should be overwhelmed by the rule of form.  Use your eyes: how is this guy pitching?  D-Rob has been pitching very well of late and the only two batters against him to that point had no good swings against him.  His form was excellent, while Aceves’ form was uncertain.  This was not Manny Ramirez in his prime we were facing, here, it was Howie Kendrick.  A good pitcher, in good form, spotting his pitches well, as Robertson was, will get out a good hitter.   Howie Kendrick is not a special, elite player.  If you throw good pitches, you’ll get him out.

Taking out a pitcher who’s clearly throwing good pitches for another pitcher who has no clear, overwhelming matchup advantage is ill-advised.  You have no idea whether Aceves will have his best stuff on any given night, while you already know that D-Rob has good stuff that night.  As Joe should have learned earlier with Joba, there’s always a decent chance on any night that the pitcher you bring in will either just not have it, or will need a few batters to get into his rhythm.  Robertson is already pitching with rhythm.   I love Joe and I love that he uses stats and data extensively in his analysis, but I’d hate to see him become completely reliant upon statistics and scouting reports to the point where he completely ignores his gut, his eyes, common sense, and the current form of the players he has on his team.

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13 Responses to The Rule of Form

  1. George says:
    October 20, 2009 at 3:00 pm

    I agree completly with this article…i was particularly dumbfounded with this move but its baseball, a managers decision will never always work out, but girardi has put together and managed a good bullpen and I have faith in the future….he didn’t wanna overuse anyone cuz I dont think he wants to push CC too much 2nite, it gives him the felixibility of having plenty of rested arms for game 4…

    Reply
    • The other Chris H says:
      October 20, 2009 at 4:46 pm

      By losing the game you have no choice but to push CC now if the game is close! IF you win and go up 3-0 CC can pitch 6 innings but since you lost you can’t take the risk that the pen blows the game and you get tied 2-2 with Burnett on the hill the next night…

      Reply
  2. Rob A from BBD says:
    October 20, 2009 at 3:16 pm

    I think what’s telling here is that leading up to Girardi’s trip to the mound he consulted the book twice. To me that shows that even he had doubt in taking Robertson out of the game. He was watching a guy flat out dealing and ignored it, but still had reservations. He should have trusted his gut and not the numbers, there just weren’t enough of them anyways.

    Reply
    • Tom Gaffney says:
      October 20, 2009 at 5:57 pm

      I give Joe credit for his diligence and analytical thought processes which benefit him 95% of the time. I think you can get lost in information and stats sometimes, though, and not see the forest for the trees.

      Reply
      • The other Chris H says:
        October 20, 2009 at 6:03 pm

        It seemed like he was almost having a battle within himself on a decision he wanted to make and at the last second bounded to the book and checked the scouting report to confirm what he felt.

        Reply
      • Classic Steve says:
        October 20, 2009 at 6:47 pm

        Incredibly well put Tom. Ironically, that was one of Bill James’ points when he began his use of statistical analysis to question prevailing baseball wisdom 30 years ago- that baseball insiders were too close and that an outsider such as himself could objectively place things in perspective. Now, with the explosion of information and ” advanced metrics” , the numbers are parsed and micro-analyzed to such an extent that there is too much information and what is happening on the field in the here and now- qualitative rule of form- is often obscured by barely relevant quantification. Unfortunately, it happens in all sorts of businesses, not just baseball. Robertson had already plowed through two dangerous hitters with ease. No reason to expect that Aceves would be a better bet to get the Yankees through the inning unscathed, especially given the fact that Kendrick was unlikely to end the game with a homer and the usual light hitting Mathis was on deck. The move was unnecessary .Incidentally, one interesting statistic that has been ignored:

        Aceves 7 HRs allowed against RHB in 162 ABs( 1HR/23.1 ABs)
        Robertson 2 HRs allowed against RHP in 93 ABs ( 1/46.5 ABs)

        Reply
        • The other Chris H says:
          October 20, 2009 at 7:35 pm

          The main reason for not bringing in Robertson was Mathis… He doesn’t hit that much hard so why not let him face a guy with a 91-94 fastball with good velocity through the zone… even if Kendrick got a hit (which he did off Aceves) Robertson still has the stuff to overpower MAthis and get to Tex and Arod on the other side of the inning.

          Reply
          • Tom Gaffney says:
            October 21, 2009 at 2:37 am

            These are all great points. It just goes to show you how you can have many different pieces of information that conflict. In these cases, I think it reinforces how you have to just look at your guy and stick with him if he’s fresh and has good stuff.

            Reply
  3. Joe O says:
    October 20, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    Great post Tom. You can’t let the GPS lead you off a cliff….

    Reply
  4. Old Ranger says:
    October 20, 2009 at 5:46 pm

    Great Tom…
    This is why I always say; “I use the stats as a guide for my eyes to see”. Put the two together and one has a better understanding of a players game skills or lack thereof. Also, you may pick-up on something that can be fixed very easily or refined.

    Reply
    • Tom Gaffney says:
      October 20, 2009 at 5:56 pm

      Yes, I think Joe WILL learn. He’s already made tremendous regular season adjustments over last year and this is his first playoffs.

      Reply
    • The other Chris H says:
      October 20, 2009 at 6:04 pm

      Exactly Ranger I think a lot of people even on this site ignore what their eyes see at times because the stats may mislead them from what they normally would think.

      Reply

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